WP3 Prototype development for operational planning tool

This report documents the model development carried out in work package 3 in the SUPWIND project. It was decided to focus on the estimation of the need for reserve power, and on the reservation of reserve power by TSOs. Reserve power is needed to cover deviations from the day-ahead forecasts of electricity load and wind power production, and to cover forced outages of power plants and transmission lines. Work has been carried out to include load uncertainty and forced outages in the two main components of the Wilmar Planning tool namely the Scenario Tree Tool and the Joint Market Model. This work is documented in chapter 1 and 2. The inclusion of load uncertainty and forced outages in the Scenario Tree Tool enables calculation of the demand for reserve power depending on the forecast horizon. The algorithm is given in Section 3.1. The design of a modified version of the Joint Market Model enabling estimation of the optimal amount of reserve power to reserve day-ahead before the actual operation hour is documented in Section 3.2. With regard to the evaluation of a power system, its ability to cope with extreme events is crucial to be investigated. Chapter 4 gives a definition of such extreme events. Further, the methodology to identify extreme events on the basis of the existing tools is described. Within the SUPWIND consortium there has been an interest in using the Joint Market Model to model smaller parts of a power system but with more detailed representation of the transmission and distribution grid. Chapter 5 documents this work