Wind Power Prediction using Ensembles

Gregor Giebel, Jake Badger, Lars Landberg, Henrik Aalborg Nielsen, Torben Skov Nielsen, Henrik Madsen, Kai Sattler, Henrik Feddersen, Henrik Vedel, John Tøfting, Lars Kruse, Lars Voulund

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    The Ensemble project investigated the use of meteorological ensemble fore-casts for the prognosis of uncertainty of the forecasts, and found a good method to make use of ensemble forecasts. This method was then tried based on ensembles from ECMWF in formof a demo application for both the Nysted offshore wind farm and the whole Jutland/Funen area. The utilities used these forecasts for maintenance planning, fuel consumption estimates and over-the-weekend trading on the Leipzig power exchange. Othernotable scientific results include the better accuracy of forecasts made up from a simple superposition of two NWP provider (in our case, DMI and DWD), an investigation of the merits of a parameterisation of the turbulent kinetic energy within thedelivered wind speed forecasts, and the finding that a “naïve” downscaling of each of the coarse ECMWF ensemble members with higher resolution HIRLAM did not improve the error scores or the result space enough to warrant the computational effort.
    Original languageEnglish
    Number of pages43
    ISBN (Print)87-550-3464-0
    Publication statusPublished - 2005
    SeriesDenmark. Forskningscenter Risoe. Risoe-R


    • Risø-R-1527
    • Risø-R-1527(EN)


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