Wildlife as reservoirs for vector borne diseases in a warmer Scandinavian climate

The distribution of vector borne diseases is highly determined by environmental and climatic parameters. As the climate becomes warmer the potential for spread of exotic vector borne diseases may therefore increase in the Nordic countries. But this does not mean that all new outbreaks of diseases can be attributed global warming. Some of these new infections have important reservoirs in wild animals and this may affect prevention and control of outbreaks in humans and domestic animals. This may also put wild animals at risk of not just infections but also of control efforts targeted at eliminating reservoirs. Insect borne Blue tongue, Black tongue, West Nile Virus, Usutu, avian malaria, Dirofilarial worms and Tick Borne Encephalitis are spreading and pose an increasing threat to people and animals in Northern Europe. Climate driven mathematical models may provide quantitative estimates of the future risk of outbreaks in the Nordic countries. DTU Veterinary Institute is developing a system for continuous risk assessment of potential spread of exotic insect borne diseases of veterinary and human importance. Mathematical models for selected vector borne diseases are continuously updated with spatial temperature data and vector data to quantify the present risk of outbreaks in case an infected vector or host is introduced to the area.