Verification of precipitation from the NWP nowcasting system at the Danish Meteorolgical Institute during a heavy rain period

Bjarke Tobias Olsen*, Ulrik Smith Korsholm, Claus Petersen, Niels Woetmann Nielsen, Bent Hansen Sass, Henrik Vedel

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to conferencePosterResearchpeer-review

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Abstract

At the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) the NWP nowcasting system utilizes a newly developed nudging based technique to assimilate radar-derived precipitation observations in the NWP model. In this method the observed rain rates are used to estimate a vertical profile of horizontal divergence changes corresponding to the rain deficit in the model. Verification of precipitation forecasts by the nowcasting system using this technique is presented for 17 days of august 2010. This period was particularly wet with several heavy precipitation events with observed precipitation above 36 mm of rain during one hour. Three of these events are studied in detail. The verification is based on the fractions skill score (FSS), which give scale selective scores of forecast skill relative to observations (radar-derived precipitation fields). The study shows that the nudging technique have a strong impact on the spatial skill oftheforecast in the first 1-2 hours of the free forecast, and a smaller but still clear impact 3-4
hours in to the free forecast.
Original languageEnglish
Publication date2014
Number of pages1
Publication statusPublished - 2014
EventEuropean Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014 - Vienna, Austria
Duration: 27 Apr 20142 May 2014

Conference

ConferenceEuropean Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014
CountryAustria
CityVienna
Period27/04/201402/05/2014

Cite this

Olsen, B. T., Smith Korsholm, U., Petersen, C., Nielsen, N. W., Hansen Sass, B., & Vedel, H. (2014). Verification of precipitation from the NWP nowcasting system at the Danish Meteorolgical Institute during a heavy rain period. Poster session presented at European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014, Vienna, Austria.
Olsen, Bjarke Tobias ; Smith Korsholm, Ulrik ; Petersen, Claus ; Nielsen, Niels Woetmann ; Hansen Sass, Bent ; Vedel, Henrik. / Verification of precipitation from the NWP nowcasting system at the Danish Meteorolgical Institute during a heavy rain period. Poster session presented at European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014, Vienna, Austria.1 p.
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title = "Verification of precipitation from the NWP nowcasting system at the Danish Meteorolgical Institute during a heavy rain period",
abstract = "At the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) the NWP nowcasting system utilizes a newly developed nudging based technique to assimilate radar-derived precipitation observations in the NWP model. In this method the observed rain rates are used to estimate a vertical profile of horizontal divergence changes corresponding to the rain deficit in the model. Verification of precipitation forecasts by the nowcasting system using this technique is presented for 17 days of august 2010. This period was particularly wet with several heavy precipitation events with observed precipitation above 36 mm of rain during one hour. Three of these events are studied in detail. The verification is based on the fractions skill score (FSS), which give scale selective scores of forecast skill relative to observations (radar-derived precipitation fields). The study shows that the nudging technique have a strong impact on the spatial skill oftheforecast in the first 1-2 hours of the free forecast, and a smaller but still clear impact 3-4 hours in to the free forecast.",
author = "Olsen, {Bjarke Tobias} and {Smith Korsholm}, Ulrik and Claus Petersen and Nielsen, {Niels Woetmann} and {Hansen Sass}, Bent and Henrik Vedel",
year = "2014",
language = "English",
note = "European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014, EGU General Assembly ; Conference date: 27-04-2014 Through 02-05-2014",

}

Olsen, BT, Smith Korsholm, U, Petersen, C, Nielsen, NW, Hansen Sass, B & Vedel, H 2014, 'Verification of precipitation from the NWP nowcasting system at the Danish Meteorolgical Institute during a heavy rain period', European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014, Vienna, Austria, 27/04/2014 - 02/05/2014.

Verification of precipitation from the NWP nowcasting system at the Danish Meteorolgical Institute during a heavy rain period. / Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Smith Korsholm, Ulrik; Petersen, Claus ; Nielsen, Niels Woetmann; Hansen Sass, Bent; Vedel, Henrik.

2014. Poster session presented at European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014, Vienna, Austria.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePosterResearchpeer-review

TY - CONF

T1 - Verification of precipitation from the NWP nowcasting system at the Danish Meteorolgical Institute during a heavy rain period

AU - Olsen, Bjarke Tobias

AU - Smith Korsholm, Ulrik

AU - Petersen, Claus

AU - Nielsen, Niels Woetmann

AU - Hansen Sass, Bent

AU - Vedel, Henrik

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - At the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) the NWP nowcasting system utilizes a newly developed nudging based technique to assimilate radar-derived precipitation observations in the NWP model. In this method the observed rain rates are used to estimate a vertical profile of horizontal divergence changes corresponding to the rain deficit in the model. Verification of precipitation forecasts by the nowcasting system using this technique is presented for 17 days of august 2010. This period was particularly wet with several heavy precipitation events with observed precipitation above 36 mm of rain during one hour. Three of these events are studied in detail. The verification is based on the fractions skill score (FSS), which give scale selective scores of forecast skill relative to observations (radar-derived precipitation fields). The study shows that the nudging technique have a strong impact on the spatial skill oftheforecast in the first 1-2 hours of the free forecast, and a smaller but still clear impact 3-4 hours in to the free forecast.

AB - At the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) the NWP nowcasting system utilizes a newly developed nudging based technique to assimilate radar-derived precipitation observations in the NWP model. In this method the observed rain rates are used to estimate a vertical profile of horizontal divergence changes corresponding to the rain deficit in the model. Verification of precipitation forecasts by the nowcasting system using this technique is presented for 17 days of august 2010. This period was particularly wet with several heavy precipitation events with observed precipitation above 36 mm of rain during one hour. Three of these events are studied in detail. The verification is based on the fractions skill score (FSS), which give scale selective scores of forecast skill relative to observations (radar-derived precipitation fields). The study shows that the nudging technique have a strong impact on the spatial skill oftheforecast in the first 1-2 hours of the free forecast, and a smaller but still clear impact 3-4 hours in to the free forecast.

M3 - Poster

ER -

Olsen BT, Smith Korsholm U, Petersen C, Nielsen NW, Hansen Sass B, Vedel H. Verification of precipitation from the NWP nowcasting system at the Danish Meteorolgical Institute during a heavy rain period. 2014. Poster session presented at European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014, Vienna, Austria.