Understanding climate policy integration as a public policy-making process: the case of energy policy in Mexico

Climate change is a complex global challenge that cuts across a range of sectors and activities. For governments, addressing this type of issue is particularly difficult because of the high level of fragmentation of their bureaucracies and administrative structures, which is not conducive to the integrated activities that are necessary for effective climate action. Consequently, there is a growing recognition that integrating climate change across established policy fields is necessary to meet climate-change goals. This awareness has become highly relevant in the context of the implementation of the Paris Agreement, according to which countries must introduce adequate policies to fulfil the mitigation commitments they have made voluntarily in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Against this background, the aim of this thesis is to examine the factors influencing climate policy integration (CPI) in developing countries from the perspective of public policy-making processes. In doing so, the thesis focuses on understanding the mechanisms leading to specific instances of policy change where sectoral policy outputs in the direction of CPI emerge. Furthermore, the thesis continues this analysis through the policy-implementation phase by proposing a conceptualization of the relationship between policy mixes and policy outcomes that addresses the agency of incumbent firms in shaping policy-mix outcomes.

The research topic is investigated by means of different case studies presented in three journal articles and one book chapter that form part of this thesis. First, Paper 1 analyses the usefulness of John Kingdon’s multiple streams framework (MSF) to understanding policy change in the direction of CPI in developing countries. It does so through a document analysis of two climate-mainstreaming initiatives implemented by international cooperation organizations in developing countries. Findings from Paper 1 show that the MSF is a suitable framework to analyse CPI, however it does not consider the potential effects of transnational governance on national policy processes, such as international trade agreements, global climate-policy negotiations under the umbrella of the UNFCCC, or the role or international cooperation organisations.
In the light of these findings, Paper 2 combines the MSF with insights from the literature on policy expansion and dismantling to analyse the integration of climate-change considerations into energy policy. It specifically examines the factors influencing the enactment of the law on the energy transition in 2015 in Mexico as an example of a specific instance of policy change in the direction of CPI. Also informed by the results of Paper 1, in Paper 3 I supplement the analytical framework with insights from the literature on transnational policy influence on domestic policy processes and analyse the potential effects of the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on domestic CPI.

Findings from Paper 2 show that the MSF has been helpful in understanding the mechanisms through which the law on the energy transition was approved in Mexico. Think tanks and NGOs, acting as policy entrepreneurs, employed diverse strategies to push for the approval of this law, which explicitly integrates climate mitigation objectives in the energy sector. Policy entrepreneurs framed the proposal as a solution to the increasing costs of meeting the growing demand for energy in the context of uncertainty about oil reserves. They softened up the system for years by participating in forums, generating feasibility studies, and deploying mass media campaigns, as well as identifying COP 21 in 2015 as a conjunctural moment that opened a policy window through which to push the law’s enactment. These findings show that climate-transnational governance may influence the national energy policy-making process through the agency of domestic policy entrepreneurs. Furthermore, Paper 3 shows that, given political conditions in the US, the renegotiation of NAFTA did not incorporate climate provisions into the trade agreement, which could have influenced domestic policy processes.

Finally, Paper 4 extends the analysis to the policy-implementation stage by combining insights from the literature on policy mixes for sustainability transitions and incentives and opportunities for incumbent firms’ diversification. It uses a case study to analyse the effects of the policy mix for grid-connected bagasse cogeneration in Mexico on sugar firms’ diversification strategies. The analysis focused on the agency of sugar firms by examining the firm-specific factors that create either incentives or opportunities to deploy resources to diversify from the firm’s core business activities (sugar production) into grid-connected bagasse cogeneration. The results showed that the variation found in firms’ diversification strategies depended on the different firm-specific incentives and opportunities (e.g., growth plans of core business, technological assets, infrastructural assets, etc.). However, the specific set of incentives and opportunities that motivated firms to invest in sustainable technology varied as the policy mix changed over time. Furthermore, credibility in the policy mix was a necessary condition for firms to diversify, regardless of their firm-specific factors.

The overall findings of the thesis point to the value of theories of the policy process in order to inform the analysis of CPI in developing countries. Theories of the policy process provide an analytical starting point to understand the factors and mechanisms leading to specific instances of policy change in the direction of CPI. However, it is important to remain critical about the validity of these theories when applied in different contexts, to identify their shortcomings, and to explore and test additional concepts that could enhance and nuance the analysis of CPI in developing countries.