Uncovering rebound effects in sustainability transitions: investigating the behaviour and leverage points of rebound mechanisms

Rebound effects pose a significant obstacle to profound societal transformation as energy and resource use gains can be offset, and even reversed, by increased consumption driven by systemic and behavioural changes. Micro, meso, and macro rebound effects have been shown to offset around 47% of sustainability-oriented actions (Andrew and Pigosso, 2024), making it evident that addressing rebound effects is critical towards enabling the sustainability of sustainability transitions (Feola, 2020).

Understanding why rebound effects occur through rebound mechanisms is crucial to ensure that transitions are (actually) sustainable. As recent research highlights, rebound mechanisms are complex cause-and-effect feedback structures involving internal and external consumption factors that ultimately explain the emergence of rebound effects following a sustainability initiative (Guzzo et al., 2024; Lange et al., 2021).
In this work, system dynamics modelling and simulation help investigate the behaviour of rebound mechanisms in offsetting the sustainability benefits of sustainable transitions, further explaining their occurrence of rebound effects and investigating potential leverage points (i.e., intervention points for prevention or mitigation). Through a conceptual virtual laboratory based on existing theories and making extensive use of scenario analyses (de Gooyert, 2019), four rebound mechanisms are investigated: (1) output, (2) income, (3) moral hazard, and (4) moral licensing. In addition to considering economic and behavioural reasons for rebound effects occurrence, these mechanisms can be activated by consumption factors deeply connected to the dynamics of sustainability transitions, such as increased financial returns to companies, decreased technology costs, and the shaping of consumption preferences (Geels and Ayoub, 2023).

This work contributes with a systematic procedure for the identification of key consumption factor dynamics that explain the rebound mechanism (e.g., moral credits accumulation from “good behaviour” and use into “bad behaviour”, leading to additional demand in the moral licensing mechanism), its translations into quantifiable structures following state-of-the-art literature, and the use of scenarios and structural analysis towards further explanation and action. The mechanisms are explored separately and in combination to consider potential reinforcing behaviour between them and complementary leverage points.
Findings are considered in light of mechanism-based explanations in social sciences and sustainability transitions research (Geels, 2022; Hedström and Ylikoski, 2010). Apart from contributing to addressing rebound effects in sustainability transitions and avoiding “unsustainable transitions”, the systematic procedure developed showcases the use of simulation models for an enhanced understanding of transitions (Holtz et al., 2015), with the potential for shedding light on the knowledge of other mechanisms critical to sustainability transitions, such as motors of change, tipping points dynamics, and lock-ins.