Uncertainty treatment in earthquake modelling using Bayesian probabilistic networks

Yahya Bayraktarli, Jack Baker, Michael Faber

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearch


A probabilistic description of potential ground motion intensity is computed using a Bayesian
Probabilistic Network (BPN) representing the standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
(PSHA). Two earthquake ground motion intensity parameters are used: response spectral values
for structural failures and peak ground acceleration for geotechnical failures. The correlation of
these parameters is also considered within a BPN. It is further shown how deaggregation of the
seismic hazard could be easily performed using BPN’s. A systematic consideration of uncertainty
in the values of the parameters of a particular seismic hazard model can be described by PSHA.
But the correct choices for elements of the seismic hazard model are uncertain. Logic trees provide
a convenient framework for the treatment of model uncertainty. The paper illustrates an alternative
way of incorporating the model uncertainty by extending the developed BPN. Incorporation of
time-dependant seismic hazard using a BPN is also illustrated. Finally, the uncertainty treatment in
earthquake modeling using BPN’s is illustrated on the region Adapazari, which is located close to
the western part of the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey.
Original languageEnglish
Issue number1
Pages (from-to)44
Publication statusPublished - 2011
Externally publishedYes


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