Uncertainty Quantification of the Real-Time Reserves for Offshore Wind Power Plants

In order to retain the system stability, the wind power plants are required to provide ancillary services. One of those services is reserve power. Here in this study, we focus on the real-time reserves which can be traded in the balancing markets and are currently used for compensation under mandatory downregulation stated by the transmission system operators (TSOs). The PossPOW project (Possible Power of down-regulated Offshore Wind power plants) developed a real-time power curve of available power for offshore wind farms for use during down-regulation. The follow-up Concert project(control and uncertainties in real-time power curves of offshore wind power plants) aims to quantify and finally reduce the uncertainty in reserve power, bringing the PossPOW algorithm and the state of the art forecasting methods together. The experiments designed to test the available power estimated by the PossPOW algorithm are used to quantify data based, objective uncertainty of the real-time reserves. The results show that the developed algorithm reduces the bias in the wind farm scale available power up to 6% where the uncertainty is improved by approximately 10% for the secondwise calculations. For 30-sec provision case, due to the characteristics of the experiment, circular block bootstrapping is implemented to increase the number of samples. The PossPOW reserve power is shown to have significantly less mean error and uncertainty compared to the good industry practice applied globally