Uncertainty of mass discharge estimates from contaminated sites using a fully Bayesian framework

Mads Troldborg, Wolfgang Nowak, Philip John Binning, Poul Løgstrup Bjerg, Rainer Helmig

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Mass discharge estimates are increasingly being used in the management of contaminated sites and uncertainties related to such estimates are therefore of great practical importance. We present a rigorous approach for quantifying the uncertainty in the mass discharge across a multilevel control plane. The method accounts for: (1) conceptual model uncertainty through Bayesian model averaging, (2) heterogeneity through Bayesian geostatistics with an uncertain geostatistical model, and (3) measurement uncertainty. An ensemble of unconditional steady-state plume realizations is generated through Monte Carlo simulation. By use of the Kalman Ensemble Generator, these realizations are conditioned on site-specific data. Hereby a posterior ensemble of realizations, all honouring the measured data at the control plane, is generated for each of the conceptual models considered. The ensembles from different conceptual models are combined via Bayesian model averaging, yielding the overall mass discharge probability distribution. Method features are illustrated on a synthetic test case.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationCalibration And Reliability In Groundwater Modelling: Managing Groundwater And The Environment
Volume341
PublisherIAHS Press
Publication date2011
Pages46-50
ISBN (Print)978-1-907161-15-5
Publication statusPublished - 2011
Event7th International Conference on Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modeling - Wuhan, China
Duration: 20 Sep 200923 Sep 2009
Conference number: 7

Conference

Conference7th International Conference on Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modeling
Number7
CountryChina
CityWuhan
Period20/09/200923/09/2009
SeriesIAHS Publications Series (Red Books)
Volume341
ISSN0144-7815

Cite this

Troldborg, M., Nowak, W., Binning, P. J., Bjerg, P. L., & Helmig, R. (2011). Uncertainty of mass discharge estimates from contaminated sites using a fully Bayesian framework. In Calibration And Reliability In Groundwater Modelling: Managing Groundwater And The Environment (Vol. 341, pp. 46-50). IAHS Press. IAHS Publications Series (Red Books), Vol.. 341