Uncertainty of mass discharge estimates from contaminated sites using a fully Bayesian framework

Mads Troldborg, Wolfgang Nowak, Philip John Binning, Poul Løgstrup Bjerg, Rainer Helmig

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    Mass discharge estimates are increasingly being used in the management of contaminated sites and uncertainties related to such estimates are therefore of great practical importance. We present a rigorous approach for quantifying the uncertainty in the mass discharge across a multilevel control plane. The method accounts for: (1) conceptual model uncertainty through Bayesian model averaging, (2) heterogeneity through Bayesian geostatistics with an uncertain geostatistical model, and (3) measurement uncertainty. An ensemble of unconditional steady-state plume realizations is generated through Monte Carlo simulation. By use of the Kalman Ensemble Generator, these realizations are conditioned on site-specific data. Hereby a posterior ensemble of realizations, all honouring the measured data at the control plane, is generated for each of the conceptual models considered. The ensembles from different conceptual models are combined via Bayesian model averaging, yielding the overall mass discharge probability distribution. Method features are illustrated on a synthetic test case.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationCalibration And Reliability In Groundwater Modelling: Managing Groundwater And The Environment
    Volume341
    PublisherIAHS Press
    Publication date2011
    Pages46-50
    ISBN (Print)978-1-907161-15-5
    Publication statusPublished - 2011
    Event7th International Conference on Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modeling - Wuhan, China
    Duration: 20 Sep 200923 Sep 2009
    Conference number: 7

    Conference

    Conference7th International Conference on Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modeling
    Number7
    Country/TerritoryChina
    CityWuhan
    Period20/09/200923/09/2009
    SeriesIAHS Publications Series (Red Books)
    Volume341
    ISSN0144-7815

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