Uncertainty of Atmospheric Dispersion Prediction

Jens Havskov Sørensen, Bjarne Amstrup, Thomas Bøvith, Henrik Feddersen, Rashpal Gill, Ulrik Smith Korsholm, Martin Sørensen, Flemming Vejen, Fredrik Schönfeldt, Robert Sigg, Jan Pehrsson, Poul Astrup, Bent Lauritzen, Jerzy Bartnicki, Heiko Klein, Magne Simonsen, Steen Cordt Hoe, Carsten Israelson, Jan Erik Dyve, Patric LindahlJonas Lindgren

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Abstract

In the early phase of a nuclear power plant accident with possible off-site consequences resulting from e.g. core melt and breach of containment, accurate prediction of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides is of utmost importance. However, two large sources of uncertainty exist: one associated with the meteorological data employed for atmospheric dispersion model prediction, and one related to the source term, i.e. the amount of radionuclides released and the temporal evolution of the release.
In recent years, the effects of these inherent uncertainties on prediction of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides released from nuclear accidents have been studied in a number of Nordic research projects funded by Nordic Nuclear Safety Research (NKS). Corresponding methods have been developed intended for operational use in emergency preparedness and response by national radiation protection authorities.
The methodology is implemented in the ARGOS nuclear decision-support system (DSS) (Hoe et al., 1999; 2002; PDC-ARGOS) and is in operational use by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA) and the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) utilizing the DMI supercomputing facility.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationFifth NERIS Workshop: “Key challenges in the preparedness, response and recovery phase of a nuclear or radiological emergency” : Proceedings
Publication date2019
Pages5-14
ISBN (Electronic)978-2-9552982-3-7
Publication statusPublished - 2019
EventFifth NERIS Workshop: Key challenges in the preparedness, response and recovery phase of a nuclear or radiological emergency - Roskilde, Denmark
Duration: 3 Apr 20195 Apr 2019
Conference number: 5

Conference

ConferenceFifth NERIS Workshop
Number5
Country/TerritoryDenmark
CityRoskilde
Period03/04/201905/04/2019

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