Uncertainty of Atmospheric Dispersion Prediction

Jens Havskov Sørensen; Bjarne Amstrup; Thomas Bøvith; Henrik Feddersen; Rashpal Gill; Ulrik Smith Korsholm; Martin  Sørensen; Flemming Vejen; Fredrik  Schönfeldt; Robert Sigg; Jan Pehrsson; Poul Astrup; Bent Lauritzen; Jerzy Bartnicki; Heiko Klein; Magne  Simonsen; Steen Cordt Hoe; Carsten Israelson; Jan Erik  Dyve; Patric Lindahl; Jonas Lindgren

Uncertainty of Atmospheric Dispersion Prediction

Jens Havskov Sørensen, Bjarne Amstrup, Thomas Bøvith, Henrik Feddersen, Rashpal Gill, Ulrik Smith Korsholm, Martin Sørensen, Flemming Vejen, Fredrik Schönfeldt, Robert Sigg, Jan Pehrsson, Poul Astrup, Bent Lauritzen, Jerzy Bartnicki, Heiko Klein, Magne Simonsen, Steen Cordt Hoe, Carsten Israelson, Jan Erik Dyve, Patric LindahlJonas Lindgren

Department of Physics

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Article in proceedings › Research › peer-review

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Abstract

In the early phase of a nuclear power plant accident with possible off-site consequences resulting from e.g. core melt and breach of containment, accurate prediction of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides is of utmost importance. However, two large sources of uncertainty exist: one associated with the meteorological data employed for atmospheric dispersion model prediction, and one related to the source term, i.e. the amount of radionuclides released and the temporal evolution of the release.
In recent years, the effects of these inherent uncertainties on prediction of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides released from nuclear accidents have been studied in a number of Nordic research projects funded by Nordic Nuclear Safety Research (NKS). Corresponding methods have been developed intended for operational use in emergency preparedness and response by national radiation protection authorities.
The methodology is implemented in the ARGOS nuclear decision-support system (DSS) (Hoe et al., 1999; 2002; PDC-ARGOS) and is in operational use by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA) and the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) utilizing the DMI supercomputing facility.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Fifth NERIS Workshop: “Key challenges in the preparedness, response and recovery phase of a nuclear or radiological emergency” : Proceedings
Publication date	2019
Pages	5-14
ISBN (Electronic)	978-2-9552982-3-7
Publication status	Published - 2019
Event	Fifth NERIS Workshop: Key challenges in the preparedness, response and recovery phase of a nuclear or radiological emergency - Roskilde, Denmark Duration: 3 Apr 2019 → 5 Apr 2019 Conference number: 5

Conference

Conference	Fifth NERIS Workshop
Number	5
Country/Territory	Denmark
City	Roskilde
Period	03/04/2019 → 05/04/2019

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Sørensen, J. H., Amstrup, B., Bøvith, T., Feddersen, H., Gill, R., Smith Korsholm, U., Sørensen, M., Vejen, F., Schönfeldt, F., Sigg, R., Pehrsson, J., Astrup, P., Lauritzen, B., Bartnicki, J., Klein, H., Simonsen, M., Cordt Hoe, S., Israelson, C., Dyve, J. E., ... Lindgren, J. (2019). Uncertainty of Atmospheric Dispersion Prediction. In Fifth NERIS Workshop: “Key challenges in the preparedness, response and recovery phase of a nuclear or radiological emergency”: Proceedings (pp. 5-14)

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title = "Uncertainty of Atmospheric Dispersion Prediction",

abstract = "In the early phase of a nuclear power plant accident with possible off-site consequences resulting from e.g. core melt and breach of containment, accurate prediction of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides is of utmost importance. However, two large sources of uncertainty exist: one associated with the meteorological data employed for atmospheric dispersion model prediction, and one related to the source term, i.e. the amount of radionuclides released and the temporal evolution of the release.In recent years, the effects of these inherent uncertainties on prediction of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides released from nuclear accidents have been studied in a number of Nordic research projects funded by Nordic Nuclear Safety Research (NKS). Corresponding methods have been developed intended for operational use in emergency preparedness and response by national radiation protection authorities. The methodology is implemented in the ARGOS nuclear decision-support system (DSS) (Hoe et al., 1999; 2002; PDC-ARGOS) and is in operational use by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA) and the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) utilizing the DMI supercomputing facility.",

author = "S{\o}rensen, {Jens Havskov} and Bjarne Amstrup and Thomas B{\o}vith and Henrik Feddersen and Rashpal Gill and {Smith Korsholm}, Ulrik and Martin S{\o}rensen and Flemming Vejen and Fredrik Sch{\"o}nfeldt and Robert Sigg and Jan Pehrsson and Poul Astrup and Bent Lauritzen and Jerzy Bartnicki and Heiko Klein and Magne Simonsen and {Cordt Hoe}, Steen and Carsten Israelson and Dyve, {Jan Erik} and Patric Lindahl and Jonas Lindgren",

year = "2019",

language = "English",

pages = "5--14",

booktitle = "Fifth NERIS Workshop: “Key challenges in the preparedness, response and recovery phase of a nuclear or radiological emergency”",

note = "Fifth NERIS Workshop : Key challenges in the preparedness, response and recovery phase of a nuclear or radiological emergency ; Conference date: 03-04-2019 Through 05-04-2019",

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Sørensen, JH, Amstrup, B, Bøvith, T, Feddersen, H, Gill, R, Smith Korsholm, U, Sørensen, M, Vejen, F, Schönfeldt, F, Sigg, R, Pehrsson, J, Astrup, P , Lauritzen, B, Bartnicki, J, Klein, H, Simonsen, M, Cordt Hoe, S, Israelson, C, Dyve, JE, Lindahl, P & Lindgren, J 2019, Uncertainty of Atmospheric Dispersion Prediction. in Fifth NERIS Workshop: “Key challenges in the preparedness, response and recovery phase of a nuclear or radiological emergency”: Proceedings. pp. 5-14, Fifth NERIS Workshop, Roskilde, Denmark, 03/04/2019.

Uncertainty of Atmospheric Dispersion Prediction. / Sørensen, Jens Havskov; Amstrup, Bjarne; Bøvith, Thomas et al.
Fifth NERIS Workshop: “Key challenges in the preparedness, response and recovery phase of a nuclear or radiological emergency”: Proceedings. 2019. p. 5-14.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Article in proceedings › Research › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Uncertainty of Atmospheric Dispersion Prediction

AU - Sørensen, Jens Havskov

AU - Amstrup, Bjarne

AU - Bøvith, Thomas

AU - Feddersen, Henrik

AU - Gill, Rashpal

AU - Smith Korsholm, Ulrik

AU - Sørensen, Martin

AU - Vejen, Flemming

AU - Schönfeldt, Fredrik

AU - Sigg, Robert

AU - Pehrsson, Jan

AU - Astrup, Poul

AU - Lauritzen, Bent

AU - Bartnicki, Jerzy

AU - Klein, Heiko

AU - Simonsen, Magne

AU - Cordt Hoe, Steen

AU - Israelson, Carsten

AU - Dyve, Jan Erik

AU - Lindahl, Patric

AU - Lindgren, Jonas

N1 - Conference code: 5

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - In the early phase of a nuclear power plant accident with possible off-site consequences resulting from e.g. core melt and breach of containment, accurate prediction of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides is of utmost importance. However, two large sources of uncertainty exist: one associated with the meteorological data employed for atmospheric dispersion model prediction, and one related to the source term, i.e. the amount of radionuclides released and the temporal evolution of the release.In recent years, the effects of these inherent uncertainties on prediction of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides released from nuclear accidents have been studied in a number of Nordic research projects funded by Nordic Nuclear Safety Research (NKS). Corresponding methods have been developed intended for operational use in emergency preparedness and response by national radiation protection authorities. The methodology is implemented in the ARGOS nuclear decision-support system (DSS) (Hoe et al., 1999; 2002; PDC-ARGOS) and is in operational use by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA) and the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) utilizing the DMI supercomputing facility.

AB - In the early phase of a nuclear power plant accident with possible off-site consequences resulting from e.g. core melt and breach of containment, accurate prediction of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides is of utmost importance. However, two large sources of uncertainty exist: one associated with the meteorological data employed for atmospheric dispersion model prediction, and one related to the source term, i.e. the amount of radionuclides released and the temporal evolution of the release.In recent years, the effects of these inherent uncertainties on prediction of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides released from nuclear accidents have been studied in a number of Nordic research projects funded by Nordic Nuclear Safety Research (NKS). Corresponding methods have been developed intended for operational use in emergency preparedness and response by national radiation protection authorities. The methodology is implemented in the ARGOS nuclear decision-support system (DSS) (Hoe et al., 1999; 2002; PDC-ARGOS) and is in operational use by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA) and the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) utilizing the DMI supercomputing facility.

M3 - Article in proceedings

SP - 5

EP - 14

BT - Fifth NERIS Workshop: “Key challenges in the preparedness, response and recovery phase of a nuclear or radiological emergency”

T2 - Fifth NERIS Workshop

Y2 - 3 April 2019 through 5 April 2019

ER -

Uncertainty of Atmospheric Dispersion Prediction

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