Uncertainty in greenhouse-gas emission scenario projections: Experiences from Mexico and South Africa

This report outlines approaches to quantify the uncertainty associated with national greenhouse-gas emission scenario projections. It does so by describing practical applications of those approaches in two countries – Mexico and South Africa. The goal of the report is to promote uncertainty quantification, because quantifying uncertainty has the potential to foster more robust climate-change mitigation plans. To this end the report also summarises the rationale for quantifying uncertainty in greenhouse-gas emission scenario projections.