Uncertainty in engineering, research, negotiation and adaptive management for water sensitive cities

A conceptual framework for comprehending, discussing and coping with uncertainty in practical urban water management is presented, which explains why there are good reasons to perceive and manage uncertainty differently across e.g. the technical, natural, economic, planning and social sciences.
A 2x2 “matrix of decision making” that clearly distinguishes uncertainty/certainty about the problem to be solved (i.e. agreement/disagreement about goals) and about the means to solve the problem (i.e. the knowledge required to achieve the goals) is introduced and combined with a well-established frame for characterizing uncertainty distinguishing three distinct dimensions (location, level and nature of uncertainty). Each quadrant in the matrix is an arena for different types of professionals involved in decision making, and is furthermore characterized by mainly one distinct level of uncertainty (statistical uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, qualitative uncertainty, and recognised ignorance). Because the location, level and nature of uncertainty differs between the quadrants the appropriate management strategy and the role of the water manager as an actor in decision processes also differs.
The framework illustrates how positivistic and constructivist planning approaches are complementary dependant on the location in the 2x2 matrix, and offers recognizable patterns that can be used for reflection when aiming to make complex and wicked decision situations tangible. The framework will be illustrated and discussed in the full paper using contemporary examples from urban water management.