Uncertainty estimation of the mass discharge from a contaminated site using a fully Bayesian framework

Mads Troldborg, W. Nowak, Philip John Binning, Poul Løgstrup Bjerg, R. Helmig

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Abstract

Field estimates of the mass discharge (mass/time) from contaminated sites are increasingly being used in contaminated site management and a quantification of the uncertainties related to such estimates are therefore of great practical importance. We present here a comprehensive approach for quantifying the uncertainty in the mass discharge across a multilevel control plane. The method is based on geostatistical inverse modelling and accounts for i) conceptual model uncertainty through multiple conceptual models and Bayesian model averaging, ii) heterogeneity through Bayesian geostatistics with an uncertain geostatistical model and iii) measurement uncertainty. The method is tested on a TCE contaminated site for which four different conceptual models were set up. The mass discharge and the associated uncertainty are hereby determined. It is discussed which of the conceptual models is most likely to reflect the true site conditions.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication7th International Groundwater Quality Conference: Groundwater Quality Management in a Rapidly Changing World, GQ10
Number of pages1
PublisherIAHS Press
Publication date2010
ISBN (Print)9781907161162
Publication statusPublished - 2010
EventGroundwater Quality Management in a Rapidly Changing World : 7th International Groundwater Quality Conference - Zurich, Switzerland
Duration: 13 Jun 201018 Jun 2010
Conference number: 7
http://www.eawag.ch/medien/veranstaltungen/events/gq2010/index_EN

Conference

ConferenceGroundwater Quality Management in a Rapidly Changing World : 7th International Groundwater Quality Conference
Number7
CountrySwitzerland
CityZurich
Period13/06/201018/06/2010
Internet address
SeriesIAHS Publications Series (Red Books)
Volume342
ISSN0144-7815

Bibliographical note

CD ROM

Cite this

Troldborg, M., Nowak, W., Binning, P. J., Bjerg, P. L., & Helmig, R. (2010). Uncertainty estimation of the mass discharge from a contaminated site using a fully Bayesian framework. In 7th International Groundwater Quality Conference: Groundwater Quality Management in a Rapidly Changing World, GQ10 IAHS Press. IAHS Publications Series (Red Books), Vol.. 342