Uncertainty Classification of the Global Atlases for Siting Parameters

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Abstract

This report describes a simple method for categorizing uncertainties of two key siting parameters,the 50-year wind and the turbulence intensity. The assessment closely follows the methodologiesand data that are used for calculating the two siting parameters. The methodologies are describedin Larsén et al. (2021). This is a simple method in a sense that uncertainty categories are esti-mated, rather than probabilities of targeted parameters. This is seen as a necessary and an efficientapproach for the GASP project, as there are many sources of input data and the quality assess-ment is in general absent or only qualitatively available. In addition, the GASP calculations aredone over the entire globe using one consistent methodology. This methodology, including manylayers of sub-methods, is challenged to different degrees in different areas, due to different flownatures and complexities for modeling. At the same time, the available measurements are toofew to guide us toward a typical uncertainty assessment global-wise. These, altogether, makes itdifficult to quantify the overall effects from the many uncertainty contributors in terms of proba-bilities.The methods for the uncertainty assessment are introduced in Sect. 2 and a presentation of thefinal uncertainty class layer is provided in Sect. 3.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationRisø, Roskilde, Denmark
PublisherDTU Wind Energy
Number of pages15
ISBN (Electronic)978-87-93549-89-0
Publication statusPublished - 2021
SeriesDTU Wind Energy E
Number0221

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