Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Options Using an Economic Pluvial Flood Risk Framework

Qianqian Zhou*, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen

*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

Identifying what, when, and how much adaptation is needed to account for increased pluvial flood risk is inherently uncertain. This presents a challenge to decision makers when trying to identify robust measures. This paper presents an integrated uncertainty analysis to quantify not only the overall uncertainty of individual adaptation scenarios, but also the net uncertainty between adaptation alternatives for a direct comparison of their efficiency. Further, a sensitivity analysis is used to assess the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. A Danish case study shows that the uncertainties in relation to assessing the present hazards and vulnerabilities (e.g., input runoff volume, threshold for damage, and costing of floods) are important to the overall uncertainty, thus contributing substantially to the overall uncertainty in relation to decisions on action or in-action. Once a decision of action has been taken, the uncertainty of the hazards under the current climate, and also the magnitude of future climate change, are less important than other uncertainties such as discount rate and the cost of implementing the adaptation measures. The proposed methodology is an important tool for achieving an explicit uncertainty description of climate adaptation strategies and provides a guide for further efforts (e.g., field data collection) to improve decision-making in relation to climate change.
Original languageEnglish
Article number1877
JournalWater
Volume10
Issue number12
ISSN2073-4441
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018

Cite this

@article{11b9859b793f4a908613d5db17fa1cd9,
title = "Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Options Using an Economic Pluvial Flood Risk Framework",
abstract = "Identifying what, when, and how much adaptation is needed to account for increased pluvial flood risk is inherently uncertain. This presents a challenge to decision makers when trying to identify robust measures. This paper presents an integrated uncertainty analysis to quantify not only the overall uncertainty of individual adaptation scenarios, but also the net uncertainty between adaptation alternatives for a direct comparison of their efficiency. Further, a sensitivity analysis is used to assess the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. A Danish case study shows that the uncertainties in relation to assessing the present hazards and vulnerabilities (e.g., input runoff volume, threshold for damage, and costing of floods) are important to the overall uncertainty, thus contributing substantially to the overall uncertainty in relation to decisions on action or in-action. Once a decision of action has been taken, the uncertainty of the hazards under the current climate, and also the magnitude of future climate change, are less important than other uncertainties such as discount rate and the cost of implementing the adaptation measures. The proposed methodology is an important tool for achieving an explicit uncertainty description of climate adaptation strategies and provides a guide for further efforts (e.g., field data collection) to improve decision-making in relation to climate change.",
author = "Qianqian Zhou and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen",
year = "2018",
doi = "10.3390/w10121877",
language = "English",
volume = "10",
journal = "Water",
issn = "2073-4441",
publisher = "M D P I AG",
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}

Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Options Using an Economic Pluvial Flood Risk Framework. / Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten.

In: Water, Vol. 10, No. 12, 1877, 2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Options Using an Economic Pluvial Flood Risk Framework

AU - Zhou, Qianqian

AU - Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - Identifying what, when, and how much adaptation is needed to account for increased pluvial flood risk is inherently uncertain. This presents a challenge to decision makers when trying to identify robust measures. This paper presents an integrated uncertainty analysis to quantify not only the overall uncertainty of individual adaptation scenarios, but also the net uncertainty between adaptation alternatives for a direct comparison of their efficiency. Further, a sensitivity analysis is used to assess the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. A Danish case study shows that the uncertainties in relation to assessing the present hazards and vulnerabilities (e.g., input runoff volume, threshold for damage, and costing of floods) are important to the overall uncertainty, thus contributing substantially to the overall uncertainty in relation to decisions on action or in-action. Once a decision of action has been taken, the uncertainty of the hazards under the current climate, and also the magnitude of future climate change, are less important than other uncertainties such as discount rate and the cost of implementing the adaptation measures. The proposed methodology is an important tool for achieving an explicit uncertainty description of climate adaptation strategies and provides a guide for further efforts (e.g., field data collection) to improve decision-making in relation to climate change.

AB - Identifying what, when, and how much adaptation is needed to account for increased pluvial flood risk is inherently uncertain. This presents a challenge to decision makers when trying to identify robust measures. This paper presents an integrated uncertainty analysis to quantify not only the overall uncertainty of individual adaptation scenarios, but also the net uncertainty between adaptation alternatives for a direct comparison of their efficiency. Further, a sensitivity analysis is used to assess the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. A Danish case study shows that the uncertainties in relation to assessing the present hazards and vulnerabilities (e.g., input runoff volume, threshold for damage, and costing of floods) are important to the overall uncertainty, thus contributing substantially to the overall uncertainty in relation to decisions on action or in-action. Once a decision of action has been taken, the uncertainty of the hazards under the current climate, and also the magnitude of future climate change, are less important than other uncertainties such as discount rate and the cost of implementing the adaptation measures. The proposed methodology is an important tool for achieving an explicit uncertainty description of climate adaptation strategies and provides a guide for further efforts (e.g., field data collection) to improve decision-making in relation to climate change.

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DO - 10.3390/w10121877

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ER -