Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis by Monte Carlo simulation: Recovery of trans-resveratrol from grape cane by pressurised low polarity water system

Sebahattin Serhat Turgut*, Aberham Hailu Feyissa, Erdoğan Küçüköner, Erkan Karacabey

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Mechanistic models used to describe heat, mass and momentum transfers involve output uncertainties, which arise from the assumptions made during the model development, and from the uncertainties in model input parameters. The objective of this study was to address the uncertainties and global sensitivities of the input parameters of a model which was developed for the pressurised low polarity water extraction (PLPW) system. Monte Carlo analysis with 1000 simulation was applied with a defined noise for each input parameters to visualise the uncertainty in the model predictions (total extraction time and extract concentration). Six sensitivity methods (scatter plot, standardised regression coefficient, correlation coefficient, Kruskal-Wallis test, differential analysis, and semi-variogram) were evaluated and compared to obtain the input parameters that were responsible for the output uncertainty. It was found that two (extraction solvent flow rate and particle porosity) out of the nine parameters were mainly responsible for the uncertainty. Results of the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses can be used to build reliable mechanistic models, interpret the model outputs, and prioritise future experimental efforts for PLPW system.
Original languageEnglish
Article number110366
JournalJournal of Food Engineering
Volume292
Number of pages11
ISSN0260-8774
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021

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