Uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling during nuclear accidents

Jens Havskov Sørensen; Jerzy Bartnicki; Anna Maria Blixt Buhr; Henrik Feddersen; Steen Cordt Hoe; Carsten Israelson; Heiko Klein; Bent Lauritzen; Jonas Lindgren; Fredrik Schönfeldt; Robert Sigg

doi:10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106356

Uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling during nuclear accidents

Jens Havskov Sørensen^*, Jerzy Bartnicki, Anna Maria Blixt Buhr, Henrik Feddersen, Steen Cordt Hoe, Carsten Israelson, Heiko Klein, Bent Lauritzen, Jonas Lindgren, Fredrik Schönfeldt, Robert Sigg

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Physics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Abstract

Predictions of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides accidentally released from a nuclear power plant are influenced by two large sources of uncertainty: one associated with the meteorological data employed, and one with the source term, i.e. the temporal evolution of the amount and physical and chemical properties of the release. A methodology is presented for quantitative estimation of the variability of the prediction of atmospheric dispersion resulting from both sources of uncertainty. The methodology, which allows for efficient calculation, and thus is well suited for real-time assessment, is applied to a hypothetical accidental release of radionuclides.

Original language	English
Article number	106356
Journal	Journal of Environmental Radioactivity
Volume	222
Number of pages	10
ISSN	0265-931X
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106356
Publication status	Published - 2020

Keywords

Nuclear emergency preparedness
Atmospheric dispersion model
Source term uncertainty
Meteorological uncertainty
Ensemble prediction

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10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106356

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title = "Uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling during nuclear accidents",

abstract = "Predictions of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides accidentally released from a nuclear power plant are influenced by two large sources of uncertainty: one associated with the meteorological data employed, and one with the source term, i.e. the temporal evolution of the amount and physical and chemical properties of the release. A methodology is presented for quantitative estimation of the variability of the prediction of atmospheric dispersion resulting from both sources of uncertainty. The methodology, which allows for efficient calculation, and thus is well suited for real-time assessment, is applied to a hypothetical accidental release of radionuclides.",

keywords = "Nuclear emergency preparedness, Atmospheric dispersion model, Source term uncertainty, Meteorological uncertainty, Ensemble prediction",

author = "S{\o}rensen, {Jens Havskov} and Jerzy Bartnicki and {Blixt Buhr}, {Anna Maria} and Henrik Feddersen and Hoe, {Steen Cordt} and Carsten Israelson and Heiko Klein and Bent Lauritzen and Jonas Lindgren and Fredrik Sch{\"o}nfeldt and Robert Sigg",

year = "2020",

doi = "10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106356",

language = "English",

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journal = "Journal of Environmental Radioactivity",

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T1 - Uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling during nuclear accidents

AU - Sørensen, Jens Havskov

AU - Bartnicki, Jerzy

AU - Blixt Buhr, Anna Maria

AU - Feddersen, Henrik

AU - Hoe, Steen Cordt

AU - Israelson, Carsten

AU - Klein, Heiko

AU - Lauritzen, Bent

AU - Lindgren, Jonas

AU - Schönfeldt, Fredrik

AU - Sigg, Robert

PY - 2020

Y1 - 2020

N2 - Predictions of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides accidentally released from a nuclear power plant are influenced by two large sources of uncertainty: one associated with the meteorological data employed, and one with the source term, i.e. the temporal evolution of the amount and physical and chemical properties of the release. A methodology is presented for quantitative estimation of the variability of the prediction of atmospheric dispersion resulting from both sources of uncertainty. The methodology, which allows for efficient calculation, and thus is well suited for real-time assessment, is applied to a hypothetical accidental release of radionuclides.

AB - Predictions of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides accidentally released from a nuclear power plant are influenced by two large sources of uncertainty: one associated with the meteorological data employed, and one with the source term, i.e. the temporal evolution of the amount and physical and chemical properties of the release. A methodology is presented for quantitative estimation of the variability of the prediction of atmospheric dispersion resulting from both sources of uncertainty. The methodology, which allows for efficient calculation, and thus is well suited for real-time assessment, is applied to a hypothetical accidental release of radionuclides.

KW - Nuclear emergency preparedness

KW - Atmospheric dispersion model

KW - Source term uncertainty

KW - Meteorological uncertainty

KW - Ensemble prediction

U2 - 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106356

DO - 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106356

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 32892908

SN - 0265-931X

VL - 222

JO - Journal of Environmental Radioactivity

JF - Journal of Environmental Radioactivity

M1 - 106356

ER -

Uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling during nuclear accidents

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Keywords

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