TY - JOUR
T1 - Uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling during nuclear accidents
AU - Sørensen, Jens Havskov
AU - Bartnicki, Jerzy
AU - Blixt Buhr, Anna Maria
AU - Feddersen, Henrik
AU - Hoe, Steen Cordt
AU - Israelson, Carsten
AU - Klein, Heiko
AU - Lauritzen, Bent
AU - Lindgren, Jonas
AU - Schönfeldt, Fredrik
AU - Sigg, Robert
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - Predictions of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides accidentally released from a nuclear power plant are influenced by two large sources of uncertainty: one associated with the meteorological data employed, and one with the source term, i.e. the temporal evolution of the amount and physical and chemical properties of the release. A methodology is presented for quantitative estimation of the variability of the prediction of atmospheric dispersion resulting from both sources of uncertainty. The methodology, which allows for efficient calculation, and thus is well suited for real-time assessment, is applied to a hypothetical accidental release of radionuclides.
AB - Predictions of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides accidentally released from a nuclear power plant are influenced by two large sources of uncertainty: one associated with the meteorological data employed, and one with the source term, i.e. the temporal evolution of the amount and physical and chemical properties of the release. A methodology is presented for quantitative estimation of the variability of the prediction of atmospheric dispersion resulting from both sources of uncertainty. The methodology, which allows for efficient calculation, and thus is well suited for real-time assessment, is applied to a hypothetical accidental release of radionuclides.
KW - Nuclear emergency preparedness
KW - Atmospheric dispersion model
KW - Source term uncertainty
KW - Meteorological uncertainty
KW - Ensemble prediction
U2 - 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106356
DO - 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106356
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 32892908
VL - 222
JO - Journal of Environmental Radioactivity
JF - Journal of Environmental Radioactivity
SN - 0265-931X
M1 - 106356
ER -