Two-Stage Machine Learning-Based Approach to Predict Points of Departure for Human Noncancer and Developmental/Reproductive Effects

Chemical points of departure (PODs) for critical health effects are crucial for evaluating and managing human health risks and impacts from exposure. However, PODs are unavailable for most chemicals in commerce due to a lack of in vivo toxicity data. We therefore developed a two-stage machine learning (ML) framework to predict human-equivalent PODs for oral exposure to organic chemicals based on chemical structure. Utilizing ML-based predictions for structural/physical/chemical/toxicological properties from OPERA 2.9 as features (Stage 1), ML models using random forest regression were trained with human-equivalent PODs derived from in vivo data sets for general noncancer effects (n = 1,791) and reproductive/developmental effects (n = 2,228), with robust cross-validation for feature selection and estimating generalization errors (Stage 2). These two-stage models accurately predicted PODs for both effect categories with cross-validation-based root-mean-squared errors less than an order of magnitude. We then applied one or both models to 34,046 chemicals expected to be in the environment, revealing several thousand chemicals of moderate concern and several hundred chemicals of high concern for health effects at estimated median population exposure levels. Further application can expand by orders of magnitude the coverage of organic chemicals that can be evaluated for their human health risks and impacts.