Transport Assessment and Risk Analysis: the case of the 2nd fixed link across the Danube River

Kim Bang Salling, Nedyalka Mudova

    Research output: Contribution to journalConference articleResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    The scope of this paper is to present a new methodology for appraising transport infrastructure projects. Conventionally, transport infrastructure appraisal is conducted by the use of cost-benefit analyses (CBA) in order to produce aggregated single point estimates (DMT, 2003). However, new research has proved that the embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as ex-ante based investment costs and travel time savings are of high significance. The paper investigates the latter two impacts in terms of the Optimism Bias principle which is used to take account of the underestimation of construction costs and the overestimation of travel time savings. By extending this principle into stochastic modelling in terms of quantitative risk analysis (QRA), so-called feasibility risk assessment is provided by moving from point (deterministic CBA) to interval (stochastic QRA) results. Hereby, decision support as illustrated in this paper will aim to provide assistance in the development and ultimately the choice of action, while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding transport appraisal schemes.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalDanish Journal of Transportation Research - Dansk tidskrift for transportforskning
    ISSN1603-9696
    Publication statusPublished - 2009

    Keywords

    • Decision Support Model, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Risk Analysis, Optimism Bias, Reference Class Forecasting

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