The value of reliability

Mogens Fosgerau, Anders Karlström

    Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    We derive the value of reliability in the scheduling of an activity of random duration, such as travel under congested conditions. Using a simple formulation of scheduling utility, we show that the maximal expected utility is linear in the mean and standard deviation of trip duration, regardless of the form of the standardised distribution of trip durations. This insight provides a unification of the scheduling model and models that include the standard deviation of trip duration directly as an argument in the cost or utility function. The results generalise approximately to the case where the mean and standard deviation of trip duration depend on the starting time An empirical illustration is provided. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalTransportation Research. Part B: Methodological
    Volume44
    Issue number1
    Pages (from-to)38-49
    ISSN0191-2615
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2010

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