The role of regional information in estimation of extreme point rainfalls

Dan Rosbjerg, Henrik Madsen

    Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    Previous analysis has shown that inclusion of regional information improves at-site estimation of point rainfalls and makes it possible to obtain estimates at non-monitored sites. The basis for this analysis was a partial duration series (PDS) modelling of individual rainfall observations and use of regional prior distributions for the PDS-parameters in a Bayesian estimation procedure. The advantages of this theoretically satisfactory, but also somewhat complicated procedure are evaluated by means of a comparison with simplified procedures. These include modelling based on regional pooling of all point rainfall data into one sample from a common parent distribution and modelling with disregard of either the dependence between stations or the regional heterogeneity. The different models are analysed and compared with respect to the uncertainty of the predicted extreme events.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalAtmospheric Research
    Volume42
    Issue number1-4
    Pages (from-to)113-122
    ISSN0169-8095
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1996

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