The role of biomass and CCS in China in a climate mitigation perspective

As the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), China plays a central role in the suite of options for climate change mitigation. To analyze the importance of biomass and carbon capture and storage (CCS) availability in China, varying levels of these parameters are created and then global climate scenarios are simulated using TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model). TIAM is a 16-region global energy system optimization model that includes a climate module that calculates the global concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere. We analyze the potential for using biomass, CCS, and bioenergy CCS (BECCS) in China under the constraint of meeting a climate stabilization target such that dangerous climate change (as defined by the Copenhagen Accord) is avoided. When considering hypothetical scenarios where GHG emissions are constrained, China consumes all available domestic biomass as a relatively inexpensive fuel source. However, while BECCS does have a small role to play, in general it is cheaper to use biomass for the transportation sector and CCS with fossil fuel in order to meet both the energy demand and emissions reduction goals in the cheapest way possible. Therefore, we find that while both utilization of biomass and CCS are essential options for reducing emissions in China, BECCS is not the most cost effective option in China. CCS is nevertheless an important option for China; in the climate mitigation scenarios modeled, by 2050, China is projected to employ CCS on at least 70% of fossil energy electricity generation. When CCS is excluded, the cost of mitigation is more than doubled compared to the scenarios where CCS is included as a mitigation option.