The Next Generation of Energy System Models

The global shift to renewable energy technologies is crucial for mitigating the environmental impact of the energy sector. A key aspect of this transition is ensuring it remains within planetary boundaries (PB) framework, to achieve absolute environmental sustainability (AESA) in energy systems.

The potential design of such energy systems is explored with the use of energy system models (ESM) that aim to find socio-economic optimal configurations of energy systems within technological and market constraints. These models are heavily used for policy support by institutions such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the International Energy Agency. However, current ESMs have narrowly focused on operational GHG emissions, disregarding the integral life cycle phases of energy technologies (such as manufacturing, end of life etc.) as well as broader environmental problems (such as the consumption of land, water and minerals ) leading to a risk of reducing direct GHG emissions at the expense of higher indirect emissions and overall resource consumption.

This study addresses critical gaps in current energy system modeling approaches by developing a comprehensive framework that equips ESM to internalize PB framework. It incorporates comparative analysis of allocation principles to determine the energy sector's justified share of safe operating space, respecting global boundaries across different geographical contexts. It also establishes sustainable thresholds for energy technology mix, complied with AESA, which would act as constraints in ESM. Furthermore, it includes prospective life cycle assessment (pLCA) models quantifying time-dependent lifecycle environmental impacts for various energy technologies to let ESM play around with configurations of future energy technology mix.

The framework acts as a foundation to enable AESA-pLCA-ESM (ApE) integration, which on a broader scale could help in identifying the implementation gap & provide policy recommendations to move society in the direction of being absolute sustainable.