The importance of predator–prey overlap: predicting North Sea cod recovery with a multispecies assessment model

Alexander Kempf, Gjert Endre Dingsør, Geir Huse, Morten Vinther, Jens Floeter, Axel Temming

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

The overlap between predator and prey is known as a sensitive parameter in multispecies assessment models for fish, and its parameterization is notoriously difficult. Overlap indices were derived from trawl surveys and used to parametrize the North Sea stochastic multispecies model. The effect of time-invariant and year- and quarter-specific overlap estimates on the historical (1991–2007) and predicted trophic interactions, as well as the development of predator and prey stocks, was investigated. The focus was set on a general comparison between single-species and multispecies forecasts and the sensitivity of the predicted development of North Sea cod for the two types of overlap implementation. The spatial–temporal overlap between cod and its predators increased with increasing temperature, indicating that foodweb processes might reduce the recovery potential of cod during warm periods. Multispecies scenarios were highly influenced by assumptions on future spatial overlap, but they predicted a considerably lower recovery potential than single-species predictions did. In addition, a recovery of North Sea cod had strong negative effects on its prey stocks. The consequences of these findings for management are discussed.
Original languageEnglish
JournalICES Journal of Marine Science
Volume67
Issue number9
Pages (from-to)1989-1997
ISSN1054-3139
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2010

Cite this

Kempf, Alexander ; Dingsør, Gjert Endre ; Huse, Geir ; Vinther, Morten ; Floeter, Jens ; Temming, Axel. / The importance of predator–prey overlap: predicting North Sea cod recovery with a multispecies assessment model. In: ICES Journal of Marine Science. 2010 ; Vol. 67, No. 9. pp. 1989-1997.
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abstract = "The overlap between predator and prey is known as a sensitive parameter in multispecies assessment models for fish, and its parameterization is notoriously difficult. Overlap indices were derived from trawl surveys and used to parametrize the North Sea stochastic multispecies model. The effect of time-invariant and year- and quarter-specific overlap estimates on the historical (1991–2007) and predicted trophic interactions, as well as the development of predator and prey stocks, was investigated. The focus was set on a general comparison between single-species and multispecies forecasts and the sensitivity of the predicted development of North Sea cod for the two types of overlap implementation. The spatial–temporal overlap between cod and its predators increased with increasing temperature, indicating that foodweb processes might reduce the recovery potential of cod during warm periods. Multispecies scenarios were highly influenced by assumptions on future spatial overlap, but they predicted a considerably lower recovery potential than single-species predictions did. In addition, a recovery of North Sea cod had strong negative effects on its prey stocks. The consequences of these findings for management are discussed.",
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The importance of predator–prey overlap: predicting North Sea cod recovery with a multispecies assessment model. / Kempf, Alexander; Dingsør, Gjert Endre; Huse, Geir; Vinther, Morten; Floeter, Jens; Temming, Axel.

In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, Vol. 67, No. 9, 2010, p. 1989-1997.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - The importance of predator–prey overlap: predicting North Sea cod recovery with a multispecies assessment model

AU - Kempf, Alexander

AU - Dingsør, Gjert Endre

AU - Huse, Geir

AU - Vinther, Morten

AU - Floeter, Jens

AU - Temming, Axel

PY - 2010

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N2 - The overlap between predator and prey is known as a sensitive parameter in multispecies assessment models for fish, and its parameterization is notoriously difficult. Overlap indices were derived from trawl surveys and used to parametrize the North Sea stochastic multispecies model. The effect of time-invariant and year- and quarter-specific overlap estimates on the historical (1991–2007) and predicted trophic interactions, as well as the development of predator and prey stocks, was investigated. The focus was set on a general comparison between single-species and multispecies forecasts and the sensitivity of the predicted development of North Sea cod for the two types of overlap implementation. The spatial–temporal overlap between cod and its predators increased with increasing temperature, indicating that foodweb processes might reduce the recovery potential of cod during warm periods. Multispecies scenarios were highly influenced by assumptions on future spatial overlap, but they predicted a considerably lower recovery potential than single-species predictions did. In addition, a recovery of North Sea cod had strong negative effects on its prey stocks. The consequences of these findings for management are discussed.

AB - The overlap between predator and prey is known as a sensitive parameter in multispecies assessment models for fish, and its parameterization is notoriously difficult. Overlap indices were derived from trawl surveys and used to parametrize the North Sea stochastic multispecies model. The effect of time-invariant and year- and quarter-specific overlap estimates on the historical (1991–2007) and predicted trophic interactions, as well as the development of predator and prey stocks, was investigated. The focus was set on a general comparison between single-species and multispecies forecasts and the sensitivity of the predicted development of North Sea cod for the two types of overlap implementation. The spatial–temporal overlap between cod and its predators increased with increasing temperature, indicating that foodweb processes might reduce the recovery potential of cod during warm periods. Multispecies scenarios were highly influenced by assumptions on future spatial overlap, but they predicted a considerably lower recovery potential than single-species predictions did. In addition, a recovery of North Sea cod had strong negative effects on its prey stocks. The consequences of these findings for management are discussed.

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