The impact of implementing HIV prevention policies therapy and control strategy among HIV and AIDS incidence cases in Malaysia

Ofosuhene Okofrobour Apenteng*, Prince P. Osei, Bismark Oduro, Mavis Pearl Kwabla, Noor Azina Ismail

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

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Abstract

Malaysia is faced with a high HIV/AIDS burden that poses a public health threat. We constructed and applied a compartmental model to understand the spread and control of HIV/AIDS in Malaysia. A simple model for HIV and AIDS disease that incorporates condom and uncontaminated needle-syringes interventions and addresses the relative impact of given treatment therapy for infected HIV newborns on reducing HIV and AIDS incidence is presented. We demonstrated how treatment therapy for new-born babies and the use of condoms or uncontaminated needle-syringes impact the dynamics of HIV in Malaysia. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia from 1986 to 2011. The epidemiological parameters are estimated using Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The reproduction number optimal for control of the HIV/AIDS disease obtained suggests that the disease-free equilibrium was unstable during the 25 years. However, the results indicated that the use of condoms and uncontaminated needle-syringes are pivotal intervention control strategies; a comprehensive adoption of the intervention may help stop the spread of HIV disease. Treatment therapy for newborn babies is also of high value; it reduces the epidemic peak. The combined effect of condom use or uncontaminated needle-syringe is more pronounced in controlling the spread of HIV/AIDS.
Original languageEnglish
JournalInfectious Disease Modelling
Volume5
Pages (from-to)755-765
ISSN2468-0427
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020

Keywords

  • Mathematical transmission modeling
  • HIV/AIDS incidence
  • Interventions
  • Bayesian inference
  • Basic reproduction number

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