The future demand of renewable fuels in Germany: Understanding the impact of electrification levels and socio-economic developments

Jonathan Vincents Eriksen; Sebastian Marco Franz; Julius Steensberg; Adam Vejstrup; Mikkel Bosack; Rasmus Bramstoft; Fabian Scheller

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e22271

The future demand of renewable fuels in Germany: Understanding the impact of electrification levels and socio-economic developments

Jonathan Vincents Eriksen^*, Sebastian Marco Franz, Julius Steensberg, Adam Vejstrup, Mikkel Bosack, Rasmus Bramstoft, Fabian Scheller^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

The Climate Change Act recently enacted in Germany highlights the urgency of understanding the future demand for renewable fuels. In this study, we combine technological progress and socio-economic pathways in an energy system analysis to assess future renewable fuel demands in Germany. We apply the whole-system optimisation model, TIMES, to investigate transition pathways with varying electrification levels and socio-economic developments. The results show that renewable fuels demand varies between 388 PJ and 1310 PJ depending on the electrification rates. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that considering socio-economic aspects and behavioural change, as represented by different Shared-Socio-economic Pathways, can significantly alter the demand for renewable fuels within a narrower yet still noteworthy range compared to the electrification scenarios. This provides country-level evidence highlighting the often-overlooked influence of social developments on demand projections. Consequently, it becomes crucial to prioritize the consideration of the climate mitigation potential arising from socioeconomic-induced changes in demand patterns within the broader framework of energy efficiency measures.

Original language	English
Article number	e22271
Journal	Heliyon
Volume	9
Issue number	11
Number of pages	16
ISSN	2405-8440
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e22271
Publication status	Published - 2023

Keywords

Renewable fuels
Hydrogen
Energy system analysis
Energy transition
Shared socioeconomic pathways

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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title = "The future demand of renewable fuels in Germany: Understanding the impact of electrification levels and socio-economic developments",

abstract = "The Climate Change Act recently enacted in Germany highlights the urgency of understanding the future demand for renewable fuels. In this study, we combine technological progress and socio-economic pathways in an energy system analysis to assess future renewable fuel demands in Germany. We apply the whole-system optimisation model, TIMES, to investigate transition pathways with varying electrification levels and socio-economic developments. The results show that renewable fuels demand varies between 388 PJ and 1310 PJ depending on the electrification rates. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that considering socio-economic aspects and behavioural change, as represented by different Shared-Socio-economic Pathways, can significantly alter the demand for renewable fuels within a narrower yet still noteworthy range compared to the electrification scenarios. This provides country-level evidence highlighting the often-overlooked influence of social developments on demand projections. Consequently, it becomes crucial to prioritize the consideration of the climate mitigation potential arising from socioeconomic-induced changes in demand patterns within the broader framework of energy efficiency measures.",

keywords = "Renewable fuels, Hydrogen, Energy system analysis, Energy transition, Shared socioeconomic pathways",

author = "Eriksen, {Jonathan Vincents} and Franz, {Sebastian Marco} and Julius Steensberg and Adam Vejstrup and Mikkel Bosack and Rasmus Bramstoft and Fabian Scheller",

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T2 - Understanding the impact of electrification levels and socio-economic developments

AU - Eriksen, Jonathan Vincents

AU - Franz, Sebastian Marco

AU - Steensberg, Julius

AU - Vejstrup, Adam

AU - Bosack, Mikkel

AU - Bramstoft, Rasmus

AU - Scheller, Fabian

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - The Climate Change Act recently enacted in Germany highlights the urgency of understanding the future demand for renewable fuels. In this study, we combine technological progress and socio-economic pathways in an energy system analysis to assess future renewable fuel demands in Germany. We apply the whole-system optimisation model, TIMES, to investigate transition pathways with varying electrification levels and socio-economic developments. The results show that renewable fuels demand varies between 388 PJ and 1310 PJ depending on the electrification rates. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that considering socio-economic aspects and behavioural change, as represented by different Shared-Socio-economic Pathways, can significantly alter the demand for renewable fuels within a narrower yet still noteworthy range compared to the electrification scenarios. This provides country-level evidence highlighting the often-overlooked influence of social developments on demand projections. Consequently, it becomes crucial to prioritize the consideration of the climate mitigation potential arising from socioeconomic-induced changes in demand patterns within the broader framework of energy efficiency measures.

AB - The Climate Change Act recently enacted in Germany highlights the urgency of understanding the future demand for renewable fuels. In this study, we combine technological progress and socio-economic pathways in an energy system analysis to assess future renewable fuel demands in Germany. We apply the whole-system optimisation model, TIMES, to investigate transition pathways with varying electrification levels and socio-economic developments. The results show that renewable fuels demand varies between 388 PJ and 1310 PJ depending on the electrification rates. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that considering socio-economic aspects and behavioural change, as represented by different Shared-Socio-economic Pathways, can significantly alter the demand for renewable fuels within a narrower yet still noteworthy range compared to the electrification scenarios. This provides country-level evidence highlighting the often-overlooked influence of social developments on demand projections. Consequently, it becomes crucial to prioritize the consideration of the climate mitigation potential arising from socioeconomic-induced changes in demand patterns within the broader framework of energy efficiency measures.

KW - Renewable fuels

KW - Hydrogen

KW - Energy system analysis

KW - Energy transition

KW - Shared socioeconomic pathways

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DO - 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e22271

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SN - 2405-8440

VL - 9

JO - Heliyon

JF - Heliyon

IS - 11

M1 - e22271

ER -

The future demand of renewable fuels in Germany: Understanding the impact of electrification levels and socio-economic developments

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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