The effect of cold waves on mortality in urban and rural areas of Madrid

José Antonio López-Bueno; Miguel Ángel Navas-Martín; Julio Diaz; Isidro Juan Mirón; María Yolanda Luna Rico; Gerardo Sanchez Martinez; Dante Culqui; Cristina Linares

doi:10.1289/isee.2021.P-039

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND AIM: While many studies analyze the effect of extreme thermal events on health, little has been written about the effects of extreme cold on mortality of rural population. Therefore, we tries to analyze these effects on urban areas and rural areas from Madrid and to test whether differentiated extreme cold effects exist between both population classes. METHODS: We analyzed data from the municipalities with over 10,000 inhabitants for the period from January 1, 2000 through December 31, 2013. Municipalities were classified as urban or rural (Eurostat), and they were grouped into similar climatological zones. The dependent variable was the daily mortality rate due to natural causes per million inhabitants (CIE-X: A00-R99) that occurred between the months of November and March for the period. The independent variable was minimum daily temperature (ºC). Social and demographic contextual variables were used, including: population age 64 (%), deprivation index and housing indicators. The analysis was carried out in three phases: 1. determination of the threshold temperature which defines the cold waves; 2. Determination of the relative risk (RR) for cold waves using Poisson linear regression (GLM); 3. Using GLM of the binomial family, Odds Ratios (OR) were calculated to analyze the relationship between the frequency of the appearance of cold waves and the socioeconomic variables. RESULTS:The urban zone experienced 585 extreme cold events related to attributable increases in the mortality rate. The average number of cold waves in the rural zones was 319. The primary risk factor was the percentage of population over age 64, and the primary protective factor was housing rehabilitation. Globally, the period experienced more cold waves (1,542) than heat waves (1,130). CONCLUSIONS:The urban zone was more vulnerable than the rural areas. Due to cold spells were more frequent than heat waves, the results support the development of specific prevention plans.

Original language	English
Publication date	2021
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1289/isee.2021.P-039
Publication status	Published - 2021
Event	33rd Annual Conference of the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology: Promoting Environmental Health and Equity in a Shifting Climate - Online conference, New York City, United States Duration: 23 Aug 2021 → 26 Aug 2021 Conference number: 33 https://www.isee2021.org/about-the-conference/invitation-from-loc/

Conference

Conference	33rd Annual Conference of the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology
Number	33
Location	Online conference
Country/Territory	United States
City	New York City
Period	23/08/2021 → 26/08/2021
Internet address	https://www.isee2021.org/about-the-conference/invitation-from-loc/

Keywords

Cold-spells
Mortality
Urban–rural
Deprivation
Building quality
Aging

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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López-Bueno, J. A., Navas-Martín, M. Á., Diaz, J., Mirón, I. J., Rico, M. Y. L., Sanchez Martinez, G., Culqui, D., & Linares, C. (2021). The effect of cold waves on mortality in urban and rural areas of Madrid. Abstract from 33rd Annual Conference of the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology, New York City, New York, United States. https://doi.org/10.1289/isee.2021.P-039

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abstract = "BACKGROUND AND AIM: While many studies analyze the effect of extreme thermal events on health, little has been written about the effects of extreme cold on mortality of rural population. Therefore, we tries to analyze these effects on urban areas and rural areas from Madrid and to test whether differentiated extreme cold effects exist between both population classes. METHODS: We analyzed data from the municipalities with over 10,000 inhabitants for the period from January 1, 2000 through December 31, 2013. Municipalities were classified as urban or rural (Eurostat), and they were grouped into similar climatological zones. The dependent variable was the daily mortality rate due to natural causes per million inhabitants (CIE-X: A00-R99) that occurred between the months of November and March for the period. The independent variable was minimum daily temperature (ºC). Social and demographic contextual variables were used, including: population age 64 (%), deprivation index and housing indicators. The analysis was carried out in three phases: 1. determination of the threshold temperature which defines the cold waves; 2. Determination of the relative risk (RR) for cold waves using Poisson linear regression (GLM); 3. Using GLM of the binomial family, Odds Ratios (OR) were calculated to analyze the relationship between the frequency of the appearance of cold waves and the socioeconomic variables. RESULTS:The urban zone experienced 585 extreme cold events related to attributable increases in the mortality rate. The average number of cold waves in the rural zones was 319. The primary risk factor was the percentage of population over age 64, and the primary protective factor was housing rehabilitation. Globally, the period experienced more cold waves (1,542) than heat waves (1,130). CONCLUSIONS:The urban zone was more vulnerable than the rural areas. Due to cold spells were more frequent than heat waves, the results support the development of specific prevention plans. ",

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López-Bueno, JA, Navas-Martín, MÁ, Diaz, J, Mirón, IJ, Rico, MYL, Sanchez Martinez, G, Culqui, D & Linares, C 2021, 'The effect of cold waves on mortality in urban and rural areas of Madrid', 33rd Annual Conference of the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology, New York City, United States, 23/08/2021 - 26/08/2021. https://doi.org/10.1289/isee.2021.P-039

The effect of cold waves on mortality in urban and rural areas of Madrid. / López-Bueno, José Antonio; Navas-Martín, Miguel Ángel; Diaz, Julio et al.
2021. Abstract from 33rd Annual Conference of the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology, New York City, New York, United States.

Research output: Contribution to conference › Conference abstract for conference › Research

TY - ABST

T1 - The effect of cold waves on mortality in urban and rural areas of Madrid

AU - López-Bueno, José Antonio

AU - Navas-Martín, Miguel Ángel

AU - Diaz, Julio

AU - Mirón, Isidro Juan

AU - Rico, María Yolanda Luna

AU - Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo

AU - Culqui, Dante

AU - Linares, Cristina

N1 - Conference code: 33

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - BACKGROUND AND AIM: While many studies analyze the effect of extreme thermal events on health, little has been written about the effects of extreme cold on mortality of rural population. Therefore, we tries to analyze these effects on urban areas and rural areas from Madrid and to test whether differentiated extreme cold effects exist between both population classes. METHODS: We analyzed data from the municipalities with over 10,000 inhabitants for the period from January 1, 2000 through December 31, 2013. Municipalities were classified as urban or rural (Eurostat), and they were grouped into similar climatological zones. The dependent variable was the daily mortality rate due to natural causes per million inhabitants (CIE-X: A00-R99) that occurred between the months of November and March for the period. The independent variable was minimum daily temperature (ºC). Social and demographic contextual variables were used, including: population age 64 (%), deprivation index and housing indicators. The analysis was carried out in three phases: 1. determination of the threshold temperature which defines the cold waves; 2. Determination of the relative risk (RR) for cold waves using Poisson linear regression (GLM); 3. Using GLM of the binomial family, Odds Ratios (OR) were calculated to analyze the relationship between the frequency of the appearance of cold waves and the socioeconomic variables. RESULTS:The urban zone experienced 585 extreme cold events related to attributable increases in the mortality rate. The average number of cold waves in the rural zones was 319. The primary risk factor was the percentage of population over age 64, and the primary protective factor was housing rehabilitation. Globally, the period experienced more cold waves (1,542) than heat waves (1,130). CONCLUSIONS:The urban zone was more vulnerable than the rural areas. Due to cold spells were more frequent than heat waves, the results support the development of specific prevention plans.

AB - BACKGROUND AND AIM: While many studies analyze the effect of extreme thermal events on health, little has been written about the effects of extreme cold on mortality of rural population. Therefore, we tries to analyze these effects on urban areas and rural areas from Madrid and to test whether differentiated extreme cold effects exist between both population classes. METHODS: We analyzed data from the municipalities with over 10,000 inhabitants for the period from January 1, 2000 through December 31, 2013. Municipalities were classified as urban or rural (Eurostat), and they were grouped into similar climatological zones. The dependent variable was the daily mortality rate due to natural causes per million inhabitants (CIE-X: A00-R99) that occurred between the months of November and March for the period. The independent variable was minimum daily temperature (ºC). Social and demographic contextual variables were used, including: population age 64 (%), deprivation index and housing indicators. The analysis was carried out in three phases: 1. determination of the threshold temperature which defines the cold waves; 2. Determination of the relative risk (RR) for cold waves using Poisson linear regression (GLM); 3. Using GLM of the binomial family, Odds Ratios (OR) were calculated to analyze the relationship between the frequency of the appearance of cold waves and the socioeconomic variables. RESULTS:The urban zone experienced 585 extreme cold events related to attributable increases in the mortality rate. The average number of cold waves in the rural zones was 319. The primary risk factor was the percentage of population over age 64, and the primary protective factor was housing rehabilitation. Globally, the period experienced more cold waves (1,542) than heat waves (1,130). CONCLUSIONS:The urban zone was more vulnerable than the rural areas. Due to cold spells were more frequent than heat waves, the results support the development of specific prevention plans.

KW - Cold-spells

KW - Mortality

KW - Urban–rural

KW - Deprivation

KW - Building quality

KW - Aging

U2 - 10.1289/isee.2021.P-039

DO - 10.1289/isee.2021.P-039

M3 - Conference abstract for conference

T2 - 33rd Annual Conference of the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology

Y2 - 23 August 2021 through 26 August 2021

ER -