The effect of cold waves on daily mortality in districts in Madrid considering sociodemographic variables

J. A. López-Bueno, C. Linares, C. Sánchez-Guevara, G. S. Martinez, I. J. Mirón, M. Núñez-Peiró, I. Valero, J. Díaz*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

While there is much research that focuses on the association between cold waves and their impacts on daily mortality at the city level, few analyze the impact related to social context and demographic variables at levels lower than the municipal. The objective of this study was to determine the role of the percentage of people over age 65, income level and percentage of homes without heating in the analysis of the impact of cold waves on daily mortality between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2013 in different districts of the municipality of Madrid. We calculated Relative Risks (RR) and Attributable Risks (RA) for each of 17 districts to determine correlations between the effect of cold waves and daily mortality due to natural causes (CIEX: A00-R99) using Generalized Linear Models (GLM) of the Poisson family (link log). The pattern of risks obtained by district was analyzed using binomial family models (link logit), considering socioeconomic and demographic variables. In terms of results, an impact of cold on mortality was detected in 9 of the 17 districts analyzed. The analysis of risk patterns revealed that the probability of detecting an impact in a district increases in a statistically significant way (p-value
Original languageEnglish
Article number142364
JournalScience of the Total Environment
Volume749
ISSN0048-9697
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020

Keywords

  • Cold wave
  • Energy poverty
  • Aging population
  • Heating
  • District

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