The Danish national passenger model – Model specification and results

Jeppe Rich, Christian Overgaard Hansen

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    Abstract

    The paper describes the structure of the new Danish National Passenger model and provides on this basis a general discussion of large-scale model design, cost-damping and model validation. The paper aims at providing three main contributions to the existing literature. Firstly, at the general level, the paper provides a description of a large-scale forecast model with a discussion of the linkage between population synthesis, demand and assignment. Secondly, the paper gives specific attention to model specification and in particular choice of functional form and cost-damping. Specifically we suggest a family of logarithmic spline functions and illustrate how it is applied in the model. Thirdly and finally, we evaluate model sensitivity and performance by evaluating the distance distribution and elasticities. In the paper we present results where the spline-function is compared with more traditional function types and it is indicated that the spline-function provides a better description of the data. Results are also provided in the form of a back-casting exercise where the model is tested in a back-casting scenario to 2002.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalEuropean Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research
    Volume16
    Issue number4
    Pages (from-to)573-599
    ISSN1567-7141
    Publication statusPublished - 2016

    Keywords

    • Transportation
    • Urban Studies
    • Geography, Planning and Development
    • Back-casting
    • Cost-damping
    • Discrete choice
    • Functional form
    • National passenger travel demand
    • Costs
    • Damping
    • Interpolation
    • Specifications
    • Distance distributions
    • Functional forms
    • Large-scale modeling
    • Model sensitivity
    • Model specifications
    • Passenger travels
    • Population synthesis
    • Function evaluation

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