Techno-economic Assessment of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production via H₂/CO₂-Based Methanol Pathway

To achieve long-term greenhouse gas neutrality in aviation, replacing fossil aviation fuels with Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) from renewable sources is essential. This study provides a Techno-Economic Assessment of a SAF production process utilizing renewable hydrogen (H₂) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) through the Methanol To Olefins (MTO) and Mobil Olefins to Gasoline Distillate (MOGD) pathway. We investigated methanol formation kinetics, comparing various models and reactor types. Models incorporating both CO₂-to-methanol conversion and the Reverse Water-Gas Shift reaction demonstrated high accuracy, with a boiling-water reactor achieving optimal conversion (22.4%) at 450 K and 75 bara. This study provides new insight into how methanol reactor design impacts conversion rates and costs. While MTO and MOGD reactors were designed based on conversion model [1], we determined a two-column distillation system was necessary to reach 97% purity of C8- C16 hydrocarbons for 38 kT/year of kerosene in addition to LPG, diesel and gasoline as side products. Economic evaluation established a Minimum Selling Price of $2.46/kg using a Monte-Carlo simulation, higher than the current fossil jet fuel of $0.68/kg [2] but consistent with prior SAF studies [1]. Uncertainty analysis showed high sensitivity to reactant prices, particularly H2. Additionally, we studied the dynamics of the process by examining different storage possibilities for hydrogen, carbon dioxide, and methanol and the catalyst deactivation within the different reactors. This study underscores the economic potential of the SAF production process, demonstrating the importance of developing advanced reactor models and assessing realistic industrial design specifications.