Structural change of the economy, technological progress and long-term energy demand

    Research output: Book/ReportPh.D. thesis

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    This report is a result of a project carried out in the period from August 1996 to September 1999 and financed by the Danish Energy Research Programme (EFP) 1996. The project has been carried out as a PhD project, and the material included in the report is a collection of papers dealing with different issues related to the topics included in the title. Some of these papers have already either been published or presented at various conferences. Together with a general introduction, they constitute the author’s PhD dissertation. The dissertation includes six papers and two shorter notes on different
    aspects of structural change of the economy and energy demand. Three different issues related to long-term energy demand are discussed: (1) the importance of technological change and its representation in energy-economy modelling, (2) an integration of two different modelling approaches, and (3) the effect on energy demand of structural changes exemplified by changes in the energy supply sector and in Danish trade patterns. The report highlights a few aspects of the interaction between structural economic changes and energy demand, but it does not intend to cover a wide range of issues related to these topics. In the introductory chapter some discussions and thoughts about issues not covered by the articles are brought forward. The introductory chapter includes an overview of possible relations between longterm energy demand and the economy, technical progress, demography, social conditions and politics. The first two papers discuss the importance for projections of long-term energy demand of the way in which technological progress is modelled. These papers focus on energy-economy modelling. A paper dealing with two different approaches to energy demand modelling and the possible integration of these approaches in the Danish case follows next. The integrated Danish model, is then used for analysing different revenue recycling principles in relation to a CO2 tax. The effect of subsidising biomass use is compared with recycling through corporate tax rates. Then a paper follows describing the structural change of a specific sector, namely the energy supply sector, and the implications for long-term energy demand. The last two papers are devoted to the structural change of trade patterns and its implications for long-term energy demand from industries and the effects on trade from changes in energy technology. Finally, an extended paper document the model applied for the analyses in paper three to paper five in combination with a critical assessment of the model and the results obtained in the first five papers. The last section of this paper is devoted to a summary of conclusions and suggestions for future research. I want to thank a number of my colleagues at Risø, who have contributed with valuable comments and suggestions. I also want to thank my PhD supervisor Jørgen Birk Mortensen for his continued support of the project.
    Original languageEnglish
    Number of pages231
    Publication statusPublished - 2000
    SeriesKoebenhavns Universitet. Oekonomisk Institut. Roed Serie


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