TY - JOUR
T1 - Stochastic nonlinear modelling and application of price-based energy flexibility
AU - Junker, Rune Grønborg
AU - Kallesøe, Carsten Skovmose
AU - Real, Jaume Palmer
AU - Howard, Bianca
AU - Lopes, Rui Amaral
AU - Madsen, Henrik
PY - 2020/10/1
Y1 - 2020/10/1
N2 - If CO2-emissions are to be reduced, the shares of renewable energy sources will have to be significantly increased. However, energy flexibility is required to cope with the increased share of renewable energy. Utilising it necessitates mathematical models of the operational response of energy flexible consumers. In this paper we present an accurate and general dynamic model of energy flexibility based on stochastic differential equations. The intuitive interpretation of the parameters is explained, to show the generality of the proposed model. To validate the approach, the parameters are estimated for three water towers and three buildings controlled by economic model predictive controllers. The model is then used to offer the energy flexibility on the current electricity market of Scandinavia, Nord Pool, using the so called “flexi orders”. Finally, the energy flexibility is used by controlling the demand of the water towers indirectly, through price signals designed based on the proposed model. Compared to having perfect foresight of electricity prices and future demand, between 63% and 98% of the potential savings were obtained in for these case studies. This shows that even without direct control of energy flexible systems, most of the potential can be reached under the current market conditions.
AB - If CO2-emissions are to be reduced, the shares of renewable energy sources will have to be significantly increased. However, energy flexibility is required to cope with the increased share of renewable energy. Utilising it necessitates mathematical models of the operational response of energy flexible consumers. In this paper we present an accurate and general dynamic model of energy flexibility based on stochastic differential equations. The intuitive interpretation of the parameters is explained, to show the generality of the proposed model. To validate the approach, the parameters are estimated for three water towers and three buildings controlled by economic model predictive controllers. The model is then used to offer the energy flexibility on the current electricity market of Scandinavia, Nord Pool, using the so called “flexi orders”. Finally, the energy flexibility is used by controlling the demand of the water towers indirectly, through price signals designed based on the proposed model. Compared to having perfect foresight of electricity prices and future demand, between 63% and 98% of the potential savings were obtained in for these case studies. This shows that even without direct control of energy flexible systems, most of the potential can be reached under the current market conditions.
KW - Demand response
KW - Energy flexibility
KW - Flexibility function
KW - State space model
KW - Stochastic differential equations
U2 - 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115096
DO - 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115096
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85086584242
SN - 0306-2619
VL - 275
JO - Applied Energy
JF - Applied Energy
M1 - 115096
ER -