Statistics-based investigation on typhoon transition modeling

Shuoyun Zhang, Kazuyoshi Nishijima

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Abstract

The present study revisits the statistical modeling of typhoon transition. The objective of the study is to provide insights on plausible statistical typhoon transition models based on extensive statistical analysis. First, the correlation structures of the typhoon transition are estimated in terms of autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF). This facilitates to specify a set of plausible models for further investigation. Then, the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (cAIC) is applied to investigate the relative goodness of fit of these models. The spatial inhomogeneity and the seasonality are taken into account by developing the models for different spatial grids and seasons separately. An appropriate size of spatial grids is
investigated. The statistical characteristics of the random residual terms in the models are also examined. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are performed to investigate the overall performance
of the proposed model.
Original languageEnglish
Publication date2012
Number of pages10
Publication statusPublished - 2012
EventThe Seventh International Colloquium on Bluff Body Aerodynamics and Applications - Jin Jiang Tower, Shanghai, China
Duration: 2 Sep 20126 Sep 2012
Conference number: 7
http://bbaa7.org/index.aspx

Conference

ConferenceThe Seventh International Colloquium on Bluff Body Aerodynamics and Applications
Number7
LocationJin Jiang Tower
CountryChina
CityShanghai
Period02/09/201206/09/2012
Internet address

Keywords

  • Typhoon transition
  • Statistical analysis
  • Spatial inhomogeneity
  • Seasonality
  • Non-normality
  • Model selection

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