Statistical models describing the energy signature of buildings

Approximately one third of the primary energy production in Denmark is used for heating in buildings. Therefore efforts to accurately describe and improve energy performance of the building mass are very important. For this purpose statistical models describing the energy signature of a building, i.e. the heat dynamics of the building, have been developed. The models can be used to obtain rather detailed knowledge of the energy performance of the building and to optimize the control of the energy consumption for heating, which will be vital in conditions with increasing fluctuation of the energy supply or varying energy prices. The paper will give an overview of statistical methods and applied models based on experiments carried out in FlexHouse, which is an experimental building in SYSLAB, Risø DTU. The models are of different complexity and can provide estimates of physical quantities such as UA-values, time constants of the building, and other parameters related to the heat dynamics. A method for selecting the most appropriate model for a given building is outlined and finally a perspective of the applications is given. Aknowledgements to the Danish Energy Saving Trust and the Interreg IV ``Vind i Øresund'' project.