Statistical modelling of traffic safety development

Peter Christens

    Research output: Book/ReportPh.D. thesisResearch

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    Abstract

    Road safety is a major concern for society and individuals. Although road safety has improved in recent years, the number of road fatalities is still unacceptably high. In 2000, road accidents killed over 40,000 people in the European Union and injured more than 1.7 million. In 2001 in Denmark there were 6861 injury trafficc accidents reported by the police, resulting in 4519 minor injuries, 3946 serious injuries, and 431 fatalities. The general purpose of the research was to improve the insight into aggregated road safety methodology in Denmark. The aim was to analyse advanced statistical methods, that were designed to study developments over time, including effects of interventions. This aim has been achieved by investigating variations in aggregated Danish traffic accident series and by applying state of the art methodologies to specific case studies. The thesis comprises an introduction to accident data, and influential factors such as changing traffic volumes and demographic and economic trends. It highlights the limitations in the influential factors data-structure, in particular, their strong covariance and slow development over time. An important issue in this thesis was to investigate the temporal dependency in the accident series. The thesis shows that the monthly observations of accidents are serially correlated and that this correlation can only partly be explained by the explanatory variables. One should therefore use dynamic modelling techniques to analyse variations in accident series. The thesis demonstrates that the general decreasing tendency in the accident series has its own slow pattern, not explicable by recorded descriptive variables. In addition, as a result of the research projects carried out during the preparation of this thesis, I have published the following papers: - Statistisk modellering af trafik uheld, Trafikdage på Ålborg Univeristet, 2001. - Sociale karakteristika hos trafikofre, Danish Transport Research Institute, 2001. - Models for traffic accidents, FERSI Young Researchers' Seminar, 2001. - Evaluation of the Danish Automatic Mobile Speed Camera Project Experiment: A State-space intervention analysis, symposium i anvendt statistik, 2003. In Danish: Trafiksikkerhed er et stort problem, som vedrører samfundet og det enkelte individ. Selvom trafiksikkerhed er gradvis forbedret gennem de seneste år, er antallet af dræbte i trafikken stadig uacceptabelt højt. I 2000 dræbte trafikuheld over 40.000 i EU og skadede over 1.7 millioner. I Danmark i 2001 var der 6861 politirapporteret trafikuheld med tilskadekomst. De resulterede i 4519 lettere tilskadekomne, 3946 alvorligt tilskadekomne og 431 dræbte. Det generelle formål med dette forskningsarbejde er at forbedre indsigten i trafik-sikkerhedsarbejdet på aggregeret niveau. Formålet er at analysere advancerede statistiske metoder, som er udviklet til at analysere udvikling over tid inklusiv bestemmelse af interventioner. Dette formål er opfyldt ved at undersøge variationer i tidsrækker af aggregeret danske trafikuheld og ved at anvende state of the art metoder til bestemmelse af specifikke tiltag til forbedring af trafiksikkerheden. Nærværende afhandling begynder med en introduktion af uheldsdata, betydningsfulde faktorer som varierende trafik volume og demografiske og økonomiske tendenser, og fremhæver begrænsninger i deres datastruktur. Navnlig deres stærke kovarians og langsomme udvikling over tid. Et vigtigt emne i denne afhandling er undersøgelse af den tidslige afhængighed i observationer af trafikuheld. Afhandlingen påviser, at antallet af uheld er korreleret over tid, og at denne korrelation kun delvis kan forklares ved hjælp af de forklarende variable. Derfor bør man anvende dynamiske modelleringsmetoder til at analysere variationer i tidsrækker af trafikuheld. Denne afhandling demonstrerer desuden, at den generelle aftagende tendens i antallet af trafikuheld har sin egen langsomme udvikling, som ikke kan beskrives ved hjælp af registreret descriptive variable.
    Original languageEnglish
    Place of PublicationKgs. Lyngby
    PublisherTechnical University of Denmark
    Number of pages108
    Publication statusPublished - Feb 2004

    Projects

    Statistisk modellering af antal trafikuheld i Danmark

    Christens, P., Thyregod, P., Spliid, H., Elvik, R. & Wegman, F.

    Offentlig finansiering

    01/01/200016/02/2004

    Project: PhD

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