Statistical Analysis of Offshore Wind and other VRE Generation to Estimate the Variability in Future Residual Load

Matti Juhani Koivisto; Petr Maule; Edgar Nuño; Poul Ejnar Sørensen; Nicolaos Antonio Cutululis

doi:10.1088/1742-6596/1104/1/012011

Statistical Analysis of Offshore Wind and other VRE Generation to Estimate the Variability in Future Residual Load

Matti Juhani Koivisto^*
, Petr Maule
, Edgar Nuño
, Poul Ejnar Sørensen
, Nicolaos Antonio Cutululis

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

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Abstract

The growing share of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, which are driven by weather patterns, can cause challenges to the operation and planning of power systems. This paper studies the variability in wind and solar photovoltaic generation in Nordic and Baltic countries. Combined with load time series, the resulting residual load is analysed in 2030 and 2050 scenarios. The correlations between load and VRE generation are studied, and it is shown that a modified 2050 scenario with higher offshore wind and solar generation share shows lower relative residual load variability compared to the 2050 base scenario. The reduction in variability is specifically significant in residual load ramp rates.

Original language	English
Article number	012011
Book series	Journal of Physics: Conference Series
Volume	1104
Issue number	1
Number of pages	11
ISSN	1742-6596
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1104/1/012011
Publication status	Published - 2018
Event	15th Deep Sea Offshore Wind R&D Conference - Trondheim, Norway Duration: 17 Jan 2018 → 19 Jan 2018 Conference number: 15 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1104/1/011001

Conference

Conference	15th Deep Sea Offshore Wind R&D Conference
Number	15
Country/Territory	Norway
City	Trondheim
Period	17/01/2018 → 19/01/2018
Internet address	https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1104/1/011001

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy

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10.1088/1742-6596/1104/1/012011

Koivisto 2018 JFinal published version, 1.24 MB

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NSON-DK: North Sea Offshore Network - Denmark
Sørensen, P. E. S. (Project Coordinator), Das, K. (Project Participant), Koivisto, M. J. (Project Participant), Pade, L.-L. (Project Participant), Skytte, K. (Project Participant), Gea-Bermudez, J. (Project Participant), Papakonstantinou, A. (Project Participant), Boscán Flores, L. R. (Project Participant), Kanellas, P. (Project Participant), Plakas, K. (Project Participant), Kitzing, L. (Project Participant) & Bergaentzlé, C. M. (Project Participant)
01/04/2016 → 31/03/2020
Project: Research

Cite this

@article{52f1570380764e47a7ccf88b48cd3ea2,

title = "Statistical Analysis of Offshore Wind and other VRE Generation to Estimate the Variability in Future Residual Load",

abstract = "The growing share of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, which are driven by weather patterns, can cause challenges to the operation and planning of power systems. This paper studies the variability in wind and solar photovoltaic generation in Nordic and Baltic countries. Combined with load time series, the resulting residual load is analysed in 2030 and 2050 scenarios. The correlations between load and VRE generation are studied, and it is shown that a modified 2050 scenario with higher offshore wind and solar generation share shows lower relative residual load variability compared to the 2050 base scenario. The reduction in variability is specifically significant in residual load ramp rates.",

author = "Koivisto, \{Matti Juhani\} and Petr Maule and Edgar Nu{\~n}o and S{\o}rensen, \{Poul Ejnar\} and Cutululis, \{Nicolaos Antonio\}",

year = "2018",

doi = "10.1088/1742-6596/1104/1/012011",

language = "English",

volume = "1104",

journal = "Journal of Physics: Conference Series",

issn = "1742-6596",

publisher = "IOP Publishing",

number = "1",

note = "15th Deep Sea Offshore Wind R\&D Conference, EERA DeepWind 2018 ; Conference date: 17-01-2018 Through 19-01-2018",

url = "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1104/1/011001",

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T1 - Statistical Analysis of Offshore Wind and other VRE Generation to Estimate the Variability in Future Residual Load

AU - Koivisto, Matti Juhani

AU - Maule, Petr

AU - Nuño, Edgar

AU - Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

AU - Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

N1 - Conference code: 15

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - The growing share of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, which are driven by weather patterns, can cause challenges to the operation and planning of power systems. This paper studies the variability in wind and solar photovoltaic generation in Nordic and Baltic countries. Combined with load time series, the resulting residual load is analysed in 2030 and 2050 scenarios. The correlations between load and VRE generation are studied, and it is shown that a modified 2050 scenario with higher offshore wind and solar generation share shows lower relative residual load variability compared to the 2050 base scenario. The reduction in variability is specifically significant in residual load ramp rates.

AB - The growing share of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, which are driven by weather patterns, can cause challenges to the operation and planning of power systems. This paper studies the variability in wind and solar photovoltaic generation in Nordic and Baltic countries. Combined with load time series, the resulting residual load is analysed in 2030 and 2050 scenarios. The correlations between load and VRE generation are studied, and it is shown that a modified 2050 scenario with higher offshore wind and solar generation share shows lower relative residual load variability compared to the 2050 base scenario. The reduction in variability is specifically significant in residual load ramp rates.

U2 - 10.1088/1742-6596/1104/1/012011

DO - 10.1088/1742-6596/1104/1/012011

M3 - Journal article

SN - 1742-6596

VL - 1104

JO - Journal of Physics: Conference Series

JF - Journal of Physics: Conference Series

IS - 1

M1 - 012011

T2 - 15th Deep Sea Offshore Wind R&D Conference

Y2 - 17 January 2018 through 19 January 2018

ER -

Statistical Analysis of Offshore Wind and other VRE Generation to Estimate the Variability in Future Residual Load

Abstract

Conference

UN SDGs

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Projects

NSON-DK: North Sea Offshore Network - Denmark

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