State-space adjustment of radar rainfall and stochastic flow forecasting for use in real-time control of urban drainage systems

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    Abstract

    Merging of radar rainfall data with rain gauge measurements is a common approach to overcome problems in deriving rain intensities from radar measurements. We extend an existing approach for adjustment of C-band radar data using state-space models and use the resulting rainfall intensities as input for forecasting outflow from two catchments in the Copenhagen area. Stochastic greybox models are applied to create the runoff forecasts, providing us with not only a point forecast but also a quantification of the forecast uncertainty. Evaluating the results, we can show that using the adjusted radar data improves runoff forecasts compared to using the original radar data and that rain gauge measurements as forecast input are also outperformed. Combining the data merging approach with short term rainfall forecasting algorithms may result in further improved runoff forecasts that can be used in real time control.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationUrban Drainage Modelling : Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling, Belgrade, Serbia, 4-6 September 2012
    Number of pages9
    PublisherUniversity of Belgrade
    Publication date2012
    ISBN (Print)978-86-7518-156-9
    Publication statusPublished - 2012
    Event9th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling - Belgrade, Serbia
    Duration: 4 Sept 20126 Sept 2012
    http://hikom.grf.bg.ac.rs/9UDM/

    Conference

    Conference9th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling
    Country/TerritorySerbia
    CityBelgrade
    Period04/09/201206/09/2012
    Internet address

    Keywords

    • Flow forecast
    • Greybox model
    • Radar rainfall
    • State space model

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