Spatio-temporal correction targeting Nysted Offshore. Probabilistic forecasts

Julija Tastu, Pierre Pinson, Pierre-Julien Trombe, Henrik Madsen

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    Abstract

    This report concerns probabilistic forecasts for Nysted Offshore. Different approaches for issuing predictive densities are studied, discussed in details and compared. The results show that the spatial correction of the first order moments of the predictive densities improves the quality of the corresponding forecasts. The spatial correction of the higher order moments is shown to be unnecessary as does not bring any additional amelioration. The best performing of the studied models is based on the adaptive quantile regression using the spatially corrected point predictions as input. This model is shown to outperform the benchmark approach in termps of the CRPS score (accuracy measure) by 1.5%-8.29% depending on the considered prediction horizon.
    Original languageEnglish
    Place of PublicationKgs. Lyngby
    PublisherTechnical University of Denmark
    Number of pages33
    Publication statusPublished - 2011
    SeriesDTU Compute-Technical Report-2013
    Number16
    ISSN1601-2321

    Cite this

    Tastu, J., Pinson, P., Trombe, P-J., & Madsen, H. (2011). Spatio-temporal correction targeting Nysted Offshore. Probabilistic forecasts. Kgs. Lyngby: Technical University of Denmark. DTU Compute-Technical Report-2013, No. 16