Spatial bias and uncertainty in numerical weather predictions for urban runoff forecasts with long time horizons

Jonas Wied Pedersen, Vianney Augustin Thomas Courdent, Luca Vezzaro, Henrik Vedel, Henrik Madsen, Peter Steen Mikkelsen

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Abstract

Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) can be used to forecast urban runoff with long lead times. However, NWP exhibit large spatial uncertainties and using forecasted precipitation directly above the catchment might therefore not be an ideal approach in an online setup. We use the Danish Meteorological Institute’s NWP ensemble and investigate a large spatial neighborhood around the catchment over a two-year period. When compared against in-sewer observations, runoff forecasts forced with precipitation from north-east of the catchment are most skillful. This highlights spatial biases in the coupled hydro-meteorological setup, which a forecaster should be aware of.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 14th IWA/IAHR International Conference on Urban Drainage
Number of pages5
Place of PublicationPrague, Czech Republic
PublisherIWA Publishing
Publication date2017
Pages168-171
Publication statusPublished - 2017
Event14th IWA/IAHR International Conference on Urban Drainage 2017 - Prague Congress Centre, Prague, Czech Republic
Duration: 10 Sep 201715 Sep 2017
http://www.icud2017.org/

Conference

Conference14th IWA/IAHR International Conference on Urban Drainage 2017
LocationPrague Congress Centre
CountryCzech Republic
CityPrague
Period10/09/201715/09/2017
Internet address

Cite this

Pedersen, J. W., Courdent, V. A. T., Vezzaro, L., Vedel, H., Madsen, H., & Mikkelsen, P. S. (2017). Spatial bias and uncertainty in numerical weather predictions for urban runoff forecasts with long time horizons. In Proceedings of the 14th IWA/IAHR International Conference on Urban Drainage (pp. 168-171). Prague, Czech Republic: IWA Publishing.
Pedersen, Jonas Wied ; Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas ; Vezzaro, Luca ; Vedel, Henrik ; Madsen, Henrik ; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen. / Spatial bias and uncertainty in numerical weather predictions for urban runoff forecasts with long time horizons. Proceedings of the 14th IWA/IAHR International Conference on Urban Drainage. Prague, Czech Republic : IWA Publishing, 2017. pp. 168-171
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title = "Spatial bias and uncertainty in numerical weather predictions for urban runoff forecasts with long time horizons",
abstract = "Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) can be used to forecast urban runoff with long lead times. However, NWP exhibit large spatial uncertainties and using forecasted precipitation directly above the catchment might therefore not be an ideal approach in an online setup. We use the Danish Meteorological Institute’s NWP ensemble and investigate a large spatial neighborhood around the catchment over a two-year period. When compared against in-sewer observations, runoff forecasts forced with precipitation from north-east of the catchment are most skillful. This highlights spatial biases in the coupled hydro-meteorological setup, which a forecaster should be aware of.",
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Pedersen, JW, Courdent, VAT, Vezzaro, L, Vedel, H, Madsen, H & Mikkelsen, PS 2017, Spatial bias and uncertainty in numerical weather predictions for urban runoff forecasts with long time horizons. in Proceedings of the 14th IWA/IAHR International Conference on Urban Drainage. IWA Publishing, Prague, Czech Republic, pp. 168-171, 14th IWA/IAHR International Conference on Urban Drainage 2017, Prague, Czech Republic, 10/09/2017.

Spatial bias and uncertainty in numerical weather predictions for urban runoff forecasts with long time horizons. / Pedersen, Jonas Wied; Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca; Vedel, Henrik; Madsen, Henrik; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen.

Proceedings of the 14th IWA/IAHR International Conference on Urban Drainage. Prague, Czech Republic : IWA Publishing, 2017. p. 168-171.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

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T1 - Spatial bias and uncertainty in numerical weather predictions for urban runoff forecasts with long time horizons

AU - Pedersen, Jonas Wied

AU - Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas

AU - Vezzaro, Luca

AU - Vedel, Henrik

AU - Madsen, Henrik

AU - Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

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N2 - Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) can be used to forecast urban runoff with long lead times. However, NWP exhibit large spatial uncertainties and using forecasted precipitation directly above the catchment might therefore not be an ideal approach in an online setup. We use the Danish Meteorological Institute’s NWP ensemble and investigate a large spatial neighborhood around the catchment over a two-year period. When compared against in-sewer observations, runoff forecasts forced with precipitation from north-east of the catchment are most skillful. This highlights spatial biases in the coupled hydro-meteorological setup, which a forecaster should be aware of.

AB - Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) can be used to forecast urban runoff with long lead times. However, NWP exhibit large spatial uncertainties and using forecasted precipitation directly above the catchment might therefore not be an ideal approach in an online setup. We use the Danish Meteorological Institute’s NWP ensemble and investigate a large spatial neighborhood around the catchment over a two-year period. When compared against in-sewer observations, runoff forecasts forced with precipitation from north-east of the catchment are most skillful. This highlights spatial biases in the coupled hydro-meteorological setup, which a forecaster should be aware of.

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EP - 171

BT - Proceedings of the 14th IWA/IAHR International Conference on Urban Drainage

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Pedersen JW, Courdent VAT, Vezzaro L, Vedel H, Madsen H, Mikkelsen PS. Spatial bias and uncertainty in numerical weather predictions for urban runoff forecasts with long time horizons. In Proceedings of the 14th IWA/IAHR International Conference on Urban Drainage. Prague, Czech Republic: IWA Publishing. 2017. p. 168-171