Spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall: Added benefits with sub‐kilometre‐resolution climate model simulations?

Emma D. Thomassen*, Karsten Arnbjerg‐Nielsen, Hjalte J. D. Sørup, Peter L. Langen, Jonas Olsson, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Ole B. Christensen

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

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Abstract

Local, short‐duration extreme precipitation events can cause floodings and have massive economic consequences. The climate change impact on such events is of great interest, but due to the small spatio‐temporal scales involved, these are challenging to properly represent in climate models. This study analyses a new sub‐kilometre (750 m) HARMONIE‐Climate model simulation driven by ERA5 reanalysis data. Three convection‐permitting models at 750 m, 3 and 5 km grid distance are analysed and compared with driving reanalyses, intermediate model simulations and a dense rain gauge network. The representation of convective events is analysed by a range of metrics categorised as spatial, temporal and event‐focused. Precipitation events are analysed at both hourly and sub‐hourly scales and a clear difference between model performance on these scales is found. Overall, we find a better performance for HCLIM750m for most metrics, yet the added benefits of the computationally intensive sub‐kilometre scale simulation seems limited compared to the convection‐permitting models at 3 and 5 km.
Original languageEnglish
JournalQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Volume149
Issue number754
Pages (from-to)1913-1931
Number of pages19
ISSN0035-9009
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2023

Keywords

  • Climate models
  • Convection-permitting models
  • Extremes
  • Model evaluation
  • Precipitation
  • Reanalysis
  • Sub-hourly
  • Sub-kilometre

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