Simulating heat load profiles in buildings using mixed effects models

J. Palmer Real*, J. Kloppenborg Møller, C. Rasmussen, K. B. Lindberg, I. Sartori, H. Madsen

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalConference articleResearchpeer-review

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Abstract

The landscape of buildings is a diverse one and long-term energy system planning requires simulation tools that can capture such diversity. This work proposes a model for simulating the space-heating consumption of buildings using a linear mixed-effects model. This modelling framework captures the noise caused by the differences that are not being measured between individual buildings; e.g. the preferences of their occupants. The proposed model uses outdoor temperature and space-heating consumption measured at hourly resolution; thus, the model is able to predict the intra-day variations as well as longer effects. Given the stochastic nature of the simulation, the prediction interval of the simulation can be estimated, which defines a region where the consumption of any unobserved building will fall in. A whole year has been simulated and compared to out-of-sample measurements from the same period. The results show that the out-of-sample data is virtually always inside the estimated 90% prediction interval. This work uses data from Norwegian schools, although the model is general and can be built for other building categories. This amount of detail allows energy planners to draw a varied and realistic map of the future energy needs for a given location.
Original languageEnglish
Article number012138
Book seriesJournal of Physics: Conference Series
Volume2069
Issue number1
Number of pages9
ISSN1742-6596
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021

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