Simulating disturbances and modelling expected train passenger delays

Alex Landex, Otto Anker Nielsen

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    Forecasts of regularity for railway systems have traditionally – if at all – been computed for trains, not for passengers. It has only relatively recently become possible to model and evaluate the actual passenger delays. This paper describes how it is possible to use a passenger regularity model to estimate the actual passenger delays. The combination of the passenger regularity model with railway simulation software is described, demonstrating the possibility of predicting future passenger delays. The described passenger regularity model is run daily to calculate the passenger delays of the Copenhagen suburban rail network the previous day. The results obtained with the passenger regularity model used together with the simulation software are very similar to the daily calculated passenger regularity of the Copenhagen suburban network. As the combined method includes simulation software and reflects the actual passenger regularity, it is possible to use a combination of a passenger regularity model and simulation software to evaluate and compare future scenarios.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationComputers in Railways X : Tenth International Conference on Computer System Design and Operation in the Railway and Other Transit Systems
    Publication date2006
    Publication statusPublished - 2006
    Event10th International Conference on Computer System Design and Operation in the Railway and other Transit Systems - Prague, Czech Republic
    Duration: 10 Jul 200612 Jul 2006
    Conference number: 10

    Conference

    Conference10th International Conference on Computer System Design and Operation in the Railway and other Transit Systems
    Number10
    CountryCzech Republic
    CityPrague
    Period10/07/200612/07/2006

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