Short-term Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind Speed Using Stochastic Differential Equations

Jan Emil Banning Iversen, Juan Miguel Morales González, Jan Kloppenborg Møller, Henrik Madsen

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

It is widely accepted today that probabilistic forecasts of wind power production constitute valuable information for both wind power producers and power system operators to economically exploit this form of renewable energy, while mitigating the potential adverse effects related to its variable and uncertain nature. In this paper, we propose a modeling framework for wind speed that is based on stochastic differential equations. We show that stochastic differential equations allow us to naturally capture the time dependence structure of wind speed prediction errors (from 1 up to 24 hours
ahead) and, most importantly, to derive point and quantile forecasts, predictive distributions, and time-path trajectories (also referred to as scenarios or ensemble forecasts), all by one single stochastic differential equation model characterized by a few parameters.
Original languageEnglish
JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
Volume32
Issue number3
Pages (from-to)981-990
ISSN0169-2070
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016

Keywords

  • Wind speed
  • Probabilistic Forecasting
  • Wind Power
  • Stochastic Differential Equations

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