Return periods in current and future climate

Dan Rosbjerg*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

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Abstract

For Danish conditions, discrete rain intensity climate factors for a 100-year time horizon are generalized to continuous curves as functions of the return period. Assuming the tails of the distribution functions for T-year events to be approximately exponential, a general formula for projecting current return periods into future return periods is developed. Moreover, the uncertainty of the future T-values due to uncertainty in the climate factor is approximately assessed using first order analysis.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences
Number of pages3
PublisherCopernicus Publications
Publication date2024
Pages485-487
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2024
Event11th Scientific Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences - Montpellier, France
Duration: 29 May 20223 Jun 2022

Conference

Conference11th Scientific Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences
Country/TerritoryFrance
CityMontpellier
Period29/05/202203/06/2022
SeriesIAHS Publication
Volume385
ISSN2199-8981

Keywords

  • UPH 21
  • SDG 13
  • Modelling
  • Urban drainage design
  • Prediction uncertainty

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