Resource Estimations in Contingency Planning for Foot-And-Mouth Disease

Anette Boklund, Mortensen Sten, Maren Holm Johansen, Tariq Hisham Beshara Halasa

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    Abstract

    Preparedness planning for a veterinary crisis is important to be fast and effective in the eradication of disease. For countries with a large export of animals and animal products, each extra day in an epidemic will cost millions of euros due to the closure of export markets. This is important for the Danish swine industry, which had an export of €4.4 billion in 2012.
    The purposes of this project were to: 1) estimate the resources needed during an outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in Denmark, 2) identify areas, which can delay the control of the disease, and 3) develop an iterative tool, which can easily be updated, when knowledge is gained from other veterinary crises or during an outbreak of FMD.
    A stochastic simulation model was developed in InterSpread Plus to simulate spread of FMD in Denmark. The personnel and resource needs was estimated using results from this model.
    It was estimated that the need for personnel would peak on day 7 with a requirement of approximately 170 veterinarians, 70 technicians and 45 administrative staff. However, the need for personnel in the Danish Emergency Management Agency (responsible for the hygiene barrier and initial cleaning and disinfection of the farm) would peak already on day 4 with a requirement for almost 500 persons, mostly recruits.
    On average, 53000 animals were culled during the simulated epidemics, leading to a daily need for rendering capacity of up to 210 tons for swine and 379 tons for ruminants.
    Based on results from a stochastic simulation model, it was possible to create a simple model in excel to estimate the requirements for personnel and materiel during an FMD outbreak in Denmark. The model can easily be adjusted, when new information on resources appears from management of other crisis or from new model runs.
    Original languageEnglish
    Publication date2014
    Number of pages1
    Publication statusPublished - 2014
    Event8th Annual Meeting of Epizone: Primed for tomorrow - DGI Byen, Copenhagen, Denmark
    Duration: 23 Sep 201425 Sep 2014
    Conference number: 8
    http://www.epizone-eu.net/en/Home/Annual-meeting.htm

    Conference

    Conference8th Annual Meeting of Epizone
    Number8
    LocationDGI Byen
    CountryDenmark
    CityCopenhagen
    Period23/09/201425/09/2014
    Internet address

    Keywords

    • FMD
    • Contingency
    • Modelling
    • Simulation
    • Resources

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