Reliability Analysis of a Composite Wind Turbine Blade Section Using the Model Correction Factor Method: Numerical Study and Validation

Reliability analysis of fiber-reinforced composite structures is a relatively unexplored field, and it is therefore expected that engineers and researchers trying to apply such an approach will meet certain challenges until more knowledge is accumulated. While doing the analyses included in the present paper, the authors have experienced some of the possible pitfalls on the way to complete a precise and robust reliability analysis for layered composites. Results showed that in order to obtain accurate reliability estimates it is necessary to account for the various failure modes described by the composite failure criteria. Each failure mode has been considered in a separate component reliability analysis, followed by a system analysis which gives the total probability of failure of the structure. The Model Correction Factor method used in connection with FORM (First-Order Reliability Method) proved to be a fast and efficient way to calculate the reliability index of a complex composite structure.