Ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling following the accidental release of radioactive material

S.J. Leadbetter*, S. Andronopoulos, P. Bedwell, K. Chevalier-Jabet, G. Geertsema, F. Gering, T. Hamburger, A.R. Jones, H. Klein, I. Korsakissok, A. Mathieu, T. Pázmándi, R. Périllat, Cs. Rudas, A. Sogachev, P. Szántó, J.M. Tomas, C. Twenhöfel, H. de Vries, J. Wellings

*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

During the pre-release and early phase of an accidental release of radionuclides into the atmosphere there are few or no measurements, and dispersion models are used to assess the consequences and assist in determining appropriate countermeasures. However, uncertainties are high during this early phase and it is important to characterise these uncertainties and, if possible, include them in any dispersion modelling. In this paper we examine three sources of uncertainty in dispersion modelling; uncertainty in the source term, uncertainty in the meteorological information used to drive the dispersion model and intrinsic uncertainty within the dispersion model. We also explore the possibility of ranking these uncertainties dependent on their impact on the dispersion model outputs.
Original languageEnglish
JournalRadioprotection
Volume55
Pages (from-to)S51-S55
Number of pages5
ISSN0033-8451
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020

Keywords

  • Uncertainty
  • Atmospheric dispersion model
  • Source terms
  • Ensemble simulation
  • CONFIDENCE

Cite this

Leadbetter, S. J., Andronopoulos, S., Bedwell, P., Chevalier-Jabet, K., Geertsema, G., Gering, F., Hamburger, T., Jones, A. R., Klein, H., Korsakissok, I., Mathieu, A., Pázmándi, T., Périllat, R., Rudas, C., Sogachev, A., Szántó, P., Tomas, J. M., Twenhöfel, C., de Vries, H., & Wellings, J. (2020). Ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling following the accidental release of radioactive material. Radioprotection, 55, S51-S55. https://doi.org/10.1051/radiopro/2020012