Ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling following the accidental release of radioactive material

S.J. Leadbetter; S. Andronopoulos; P. Bedwell; K. Chevalier-Jabet; G. Geertsema; F. Gering; T. Hamburger; A.R. Jones; H. Klein; I. Korsakissok; A. Mathieu; T. Pázmándi; R. Périllat; Cs. Rudas; A. Sogachev; P. Szántó; J.M. Tomas; C. Twenhöfel; H. de Vries; J. Wellings

doi:10.1051/radiopro/2020012

Ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling following the accidental release of radioactive material

S.J. Leadbetter^*, S. Andronopoulos, P. Bedwell, K. Chevalier-Jabet, G. Geertsema, F. Gering, T. Hamburger, A.R. Jones, H. Klein, I. Korsakissok, A. Mathieu, T. Pázmándi, R. Périllat, Cs. Rudas, A. Sogachev, P. Szántó, J.M. Tomas, C. Twenhöfel, H. de Vries, J. Wellings

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

During the pre-release and early phase of an accidental release of radionuclides into the atmosphere there are few or no measurements, and dispersion models are used to assess the consequences and assist in determining appropriate countermeasures. However, uncertainties are high during this early phase and it is important to characterise these uncertainties and, if possible, include them in any dispersion modelling. In this paper we examine three sources of uncertainty in dispersion modelling; uncertainty in the source term, uncertainty in the meteorological information used to drive the dispersion model and intrinsic uncertainty within the dispersion model. We also explore the possibility of ranking these uncertainties dependent on their impact on the dispersion model outputs.

Original language	English
Journal	Radioprotection
Volume	55
Pages (from-to)	S51-S55
Number of pages	5
ISSN	0033-8451
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1051/radiopro/2020012
Publication status	Published - 2020

Keywords

Uncertainty
Atmospheric dispersion model
Source terms
Ensemble simulation
CONFIDENCE

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Leadbetter, S. J., Andronopoulos, S., Bedwell, P., Chevalier-Jabet, K., Geertsema, G., Gering, F., Hamburger, T., Jones, A. R., Klein, H., Korsakissok, I., Mathieu, A., Pázmándi, T., Périllat, R., Rudas, C., Sogachev, A., Szántó, P., Tomas, J. M., Twenhöfel, C., de Vries, H., & Wellings, J. (2020). Ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling following the accidental release of radioactive material. Radioprotection, 55, S51-S55. https://doi.org/10.1051/radiopro/2020012

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title = "Ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling following the accidental release of radioactive material",

abstract = "During the pre-release and early phase of an accidental release of radionuclides into the atmosphere there are few or no measurements, and dispersion models are used to assess the consequences and assist in determining appropriate countermeasures. However, uncertainties are high during this early phase and it is important to characterise these uncertainties and, if possible, include them in any dispersion modelling. In this paper we examine three sources of uncertainty in dispersion modelling; uncertainty in the source term, uncertainty in the meteorological information used to drive the dispersion model and intrinsic uncertainty within the dispersion model. We also explore the possibility of ranking these uncertainties dependent on their impact on the dispersion model outputs.",

keywords = "Uncertainty, Atmospheric dispersion model, Source terms, Ensemble simulation, CONFIDENCE",

author = "S.J. Leadbetter and S. Andronopoulos and P. Bedwell and K. Chevalier-Jabet and G. Geertsema and F. Gering and T. Hamburger and A.R. Jones and H. Klein and I. Korsakissok and A. Mathieu and T. P{\'a}zm{\'a}ndi and R. P{\'e}rillat and Cs. Rudas and A. Sogachev and P. Sz{\'a}nt{\'o} and J.M. Tomas and C. Twenh{\"o}fel and {de Vries}, H. and J. Wellings",

year = "2020",

doi = "10.1051/radiopro/2020012",

language = "English",

volume = "55",

pages = "S51--S55",

journal = "Radioprotection",

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Leadbetter, SJ, Andronopoulos, S, Bedwell, P, Chevalier-Jabet, K, Geertsema, G, Gering, F, Hamburger, T, Jones, AR, Klein, H, Korsakissok, I, Mathieu, A, Pázmándi, T, Périllat, R, Rudas, C, Sogachev, A, Szántó, P, Tomas, JM, Twenhöfel, C, de Vries, H & Wellings, J 2020, 'Ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling following the accidental release of radioactive material', Radioprotection, vol. 55, pp. S51-S55. https://doi.org/10.1051/radiopro/2020012

TY - JOUR

T1 - Ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling following the accidental release of radioactive material

AU - Leadbetter, S.J.

AU - Andronopoulos, S.

AU - Bedwell, P.

AU - Chevalier-Jabet, K.

AU - Geertsema, G.

AU - Gering, F.

AU - Hamburger, T.

AU - Jones, A.R.

AU - Klein, H.

AU - Korsakissok, I.

AU - Mathieu, A.

AU - Pázmándi, T.

AU - Périllat, R.

AU - Rudas, Cs.

AU - Sogachev, A.

AU - Szántó, P.

AU - Tomas, J.M.

AU - Twenhöfel, C.

AU - de Vries, H.

AU - Wellings, J.

PY - 2020

Y1 - 2020

N2 - During the pre-release and early phase of an accidental release of radionuclides into the atmosphere there are few or no measurements, and dispersion models are used to assess the consequences and assist in determining appropriate countermeasures. However, uncertainties are high during this early phase and it is important to characterise these uncertainties and, if possible, include them in any dispersion modelling. In this paper we examine three sources of uncertainty in dispersion modelling; uncertainty in the source term, uncertainty in the meteorological information used to drive the dispersion model and intrinsic uncertainty within the dispersion model. We also explore the possibility of ranking these uncertainties dependent on their impact on the dispersion model outputs.

AB - During the pre-release and early phase of an accidental release of radionuclides into the atmosphere there are few or no measurements, and dispersion models are used to assess the consequences and assist in determining appropriate countermeasures. However, uncertainties are high during this early phase and it is important to characterise these uncertainties and, if possible, include them in any dispersion modelling. In this paper we examine three sources of uncertainty in dispersion modelling; uncertainty in the source term, uncertainty in the meteorological information used to drive the dispersion model and intrinsic uncertainty within the dispersion model. We also explore the possibility of ranking these uncertainties dependent on their impact on the dispersion model outputs.

KW - Uncertainty

KW - Atmospheric dispersion model

KW - Source terms

KW - Ensemble simulation

KW - CONFIDENCE

U2 - 10.1051/radiopro/2020012

DO - 10.1051/radiopro/2020012

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0033-8451

VL - 55

SP - S51-S55

JO - Radioprotection

JF - Radioprotection

ER -

Ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling following the accidental release of radioactive material

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