Quantifying the role of liquid hydrocarbons in the current and future energy balance of a selfsufficient Denmark

Denmark is a pioneer and a front-runner in the large-scale extraction of the sustainable energy of the wind, especially in the electricity sector which supplies most of the Danish electricity consumption. A combination of these recent Danish successes, and the increased societal demand for the reduction of carbon dioxide emission in light of the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, has created the expectation of a fast transition from fossil fuel to sustainable energy resources in all energy sectors. Although this transition is inevitable due to the unsustainable nature of fossil fuels and the declining Danish oil and gas production, there is still an ongoing discussion, sometimes supported by qualitative evidence, on its possibility, extent, and urgency. This paper that is inspired by a true story of an unsuccessful date between a petroleum engineering colleague and a Danish environmentalist has a quantitative look at the future energy balance of Denmark by estimating the future energy consumption of a typical Dane and comparing it with the available renewable and non-renewable energy resources. It also suggests and compares different scenarios for a self-sufficient Denmark with 100% renewable energy, considering the available land and shallow sea and the footprint of the energy extraction and storage methods in Denmark. The results show that if the intermittency problem of the wind energy is addressed in the future, there is still a large demand, mostly from the transport sector, for liquid fuels with high energy-density, which needs to be addressed by a paradigm shift in transport technology or large scale implementation of power to fuel technologies with a sustainable carbon source.