Quantification of the Posterior Utilities of SHM Campaigns on an Orthotropic Steel Bridge Deck

Lijia Long, Isaac Farreras Alcover, Sebastian Thöns

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperResearchpeer-review

Abstract

This paper contains a quantification and decision theoretical optimization of the posterior utilities for several options for monitoring campaigns on the particular case of fatigue life predictions of an orthotropic steel deck. The monitoring campaigns are defined by varying monitoring durations and phases. The decision analysis is performed with real data from the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) of the Great Belt Bridge (Denmark) which, among others, consist of measured strains, pavement temperatures and traffic intensities. The fatigue loading prediction model is based on regression models linking daily averaged pavement temperatures, daily aggregated heavy-traffic counts and derived S-N fatigue damages, all of them derived from the outcomes of different monitoring campaigns. A probabilistic methodology is utilized to calculate the fatigue reliability profiles of selected instrumented welded joints. The posterior utilities of SHM campaigns are then quantified by considering the structural fatigue reliability, various monitoring campaigns and the corresponding cost-benefit models. The decisions of identifying the optimal monitoring campaign and of extending the service life or not in conjunction with monitoring results are modelled. The optimal monitoring campaign is identified - retrospectively - by maximizing the expected benefits and minimize risks in dependency of the monitoring duration and the monitoring associated costs. The results, despite relying on a number of simplistic assumptions, pave the way towards the use of pre-posterior decision support to optimise the design of monitoring campaigns for similar bridges, with an overall goal to proof the cost efficiency of SHM approaches to civil infrastructure management.
Original languageEnglish
Publication date2019
Number of pages8
Publication statusPublished - 2019
EventThe 12th International Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring - Stanford, United States
Duration: 10 Sep 201912 Sep 2019
Conference number: 12

Conference

ConferenceThe 12th International Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring
Number12
CountryUnited States
CityStanford
Period10/09/201912/09/2019

Cite this

Long, L., Alcover, I. F., & Thöns, S. (2019). Quantification of the Posterior Utilities of SHM Campaigns on an Orthotropic Steel Bridge Deck. Paper presented at The 12th International Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring, Stanford, United States.
Long, Lijia ; Alcover, Isaac Farreras ; Thöns, Sebastian. / Quantification of the Posterior Utilities of SHM Campaigns on an Orthotropic Steel Bridge Deck. Paper presented at The 12th International Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring, Stanford, United States.8 p.
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abstract = "This paper contains a quantification and decision theoretical optimization of the posterior utilities for several options for monitoring campaigns on the particular case of fatigue life predictions of an orthotropic steel deck. The monitoring campaigns are defined by varying monitoring durations and phases. The decision analysis is performed with real data from the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) of the Great Belt Bridge (Denmark) which, among others, consist of measured strains, pavement temperatures and traffic intensities. The fatigue loading prediction model is based on regression models linking daily averaged pavement temperatures, daily aggregated heavy-traffic counts and derived S-N fatigue damages, all of them derived from the outcomes of different monitoring campaigns. A probabilistic methodology is utilized to calculate the fatigue reliability profiles of selected instrumented welded joints. The posterior utilities of SHM campaigns are then quantified by considering the structural fatigue reliability, various monitoring campaigns and the corresponding cost-benefit models. The decisions of identifying the optimal monitoring campaign and of extending the service life or not in conjunction with monitoring results are modelled. The optimal monitoring campaign is identified - retrospectively - by maximizing the expected benefits and minimize risks in dependency of the monitoring duration and the monitoring associated costs. The results, despite relying on a number of simplistic assumptions, pave the way towards the use of pre-posterior decision support to optimise the design of monitoring campaigns for similar bridges, with an overall goal to proof the cost efficiency of SHM approaches to civil infrastructure management.",
author = "Lijia Long and Alcover, {Isaac Farreras} and Sebastian Th{\"o}ns",
year = "2019",
language = "English",
note = "The 12th International Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring, IWSHM 2019 ; Conference date: 10-09-2019 Through 12-09-2019",

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Long, L, Alcover, IF & Thöns, S 2019, 'Quantification of the Posterior Utilities of SHM Campaigns on an Orthotropic Steel Bridge Deck' Paper presented at The 12th International Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring, Stanford, United States, 10/09/2019 - 12/09/2019, .

Quantification of the Posterior Utilities of SHM Campaigns on an Orthotropic Steel Bridge Deck. / Long, Lijia; Alcover, Isaac Farreras ; Thöns, Sebastian.

2019. Paper presented at The 12th International Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring, Stanford, United States.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperResearchpeer-review

TY - CONF

T1 - Quantification of the Posterior Utilities of SHM Campaigns on an Orthotropic Steel Bridge Deck

AU - Long, Lijia

AU - Alcover, Isaac Farreras

AU - Thöns, Sebastian

PY - 2019

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N2 - This paper contains a quantification and decision theoretical optimization of the posterior utilities for several options for monitoring campaigns on the particular case of fatigue life predictions of an orthotropic steel deck. The monitoring campaigns are defined by varying monitoring durations and phases. The decision analysis is performed with real data from the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) of the Great Belt Bridge (Denmark) which, among others, consist of measured strains, pavement temperatures and traffic intensities. The fatigue loading prediction model is based on regression models linking daily averaged pavement temperatures, daily aggregated heavy-traffic counts and derived S-N fatigue damages, all of them derived from the outcomes of different monitoring campaigns. A probabilistic methodology is utilized to calculate the fatigue reliability profiles of selected instrumented welded joints. The posterior utilities of SHM campaigns are then quantified by considering the structural fatigue reliability, various monitoring campaigns and the corresponding cost-benefit models. The decisions of identifying the optimal monitoring campaign and of extending the service life or not in conjunction with monitoring results are modelled. The optimal monitoring campaign is identified - retrospectively - by maximizing the expected benefits and minimize risks in dependency of the monitoring duration and the monitoring associated costs. The results, despite relying on a number of simplistic assumptions, pave the way towards the use of pre-posterior decision support to optimise the design of monitoring campaigns for similar bridges, with an overall goal to proof the cost efficiency of SHM approaches to civil infrastructure management.

AB - This paper contains a quantification and decision theoretical optimization of the posterior utilities for several options for monitoring campaigns on the particular case of fatigue life predictions of an orthotropic steel deck. The monitoring campaigns are defined by varying monitoring durations and phases. The decision analysis is performed with real data from the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) of the Great Belt Bridge (Denmark) which, among others, consist of measured strains, pavement temperatures and traffic intensities. The fatigue loading prediction model is based on regression models linking daily averaged pavement temperatures, daily aggregated heavy-traffic counts and derived S-N fatigue damages, all of them derived from the outcomes of different monitoring campaigns. A probabilistic methodology is utilized to calculate the fatigue reliability profiles of selected instrumented welded joints. The posterior utilities of SHM campaigns are then quantified by considering the structural fatigue reliability, various monitoring campaigns and the corresponding cost-benefit models. The decisions of identifying the optimal monitoring campaign and of extending the service life or not in conjunction with monitoring results are modelled. The optimal monitoring campaign is identified - retrospectively - by maximizing the expected benefits and minimize risks in dependency of the monitoring duration and the monitoring associated costs. The results, despite relying on a number of simplistic assumptions, pave the way towards the use of pre-posterior decision support to optimise the design of monitoring campaigns for similar bridges, with an overall goal to proof the cost efficiency of SHM approaches to civil infrastructure management.

M3 - Paper

ER -

Long L, Alcover IF, Thöns S. Quantification of the Posterior Utilities of SHM Campaigns on an Orthotropic Steel Bridge Deck. 2019. Paper presented at The 12th International Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring, Stanford, United States.