Probabilistic Forecasting for On-line Operation of Urban Drainage Systems

This thesis deals with the generation of probabilistic forecasts in urban hydrology. In particular, we focus on the case of runoff forecasting for real-time control (RTC) on horizons of up to two hours.

For the generation of probabilistic on-line runoff forecasts, we apply the stochastic grey-box model approach. Building on previous work concerning the development of conceptual stochastic rainfall-runoff model structures, we

- investigate approaches for the calibration of model parameters that tune the models for multistep predictions,
- develop an approach for generating probabilistic multistep predictions of runoff volume in an on-line setting,
- develop a new approach for dynamically modelling runoff forecast uncertainty.

We investigate how rainfall inputs can be optimally combined for runoff forecasting with stochastic grey-box models and what effect different types of radar rainfall measurements and forecasts have on on-line runoff forecast quality.

Finally, we implement the stochastic grey-box model approach in a real-world real-time control (RTC) setup and study how RTC can benefit from a dynamic quantification of runoff forecast uncertainty.